Dollar is better against other currencies, gold defensive

Top Day Rec

10.28.09

It’s raining, it’s pouring in NYC this morning. Durable Goods comes in at 1.0% as expected. Single family home sales out at 10. Department of Energy will supply the weekly inventory report at 10.30.

Overnight, more of the same in terms of market action. Stocks have rolled over. Dollar is better against the group of currencies, gold defensive.

Rooting for the Yankees to win the Series is almost like pulling for Bill Gates to win the lottery after he’s bought 75% of all the tickets.

Oct 27	09:00	CaseShiller Home Price Index	Aug	-13.0%	-11.90%	-13.30%
Oct 27	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Oct	52.6	53.5	53.1
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders	Sep	0.5%	1.0%	-2.4%
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders ex Transportation	Sep	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%
Oct 28	10:00	New Home Sales	Sep	450K	440K	429K
Oct 28	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/23	NA	NA	1.31M
Oct 29	08:30	Chain Deflator-Adv.	Q3	1.3%	1.3%	0.0%
Oct 29	08:30	GDP-Adv.	Q3	2.5%	3.2%	-0.7%
Oct 29	08:30	Initial Claims	10/24	520K	525K	531K
Oct 29	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/17	5890K	5915K	5923K
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Income	Sep	-0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Spending	Sep	-0.7%	-0.5%	1.3%
Oct 30	08:30	PCE Prices	Sep	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Oct 30	08:30	Core PCE Prices	Sep	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Oct	51.0	48.7	46.1
Oct 30	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Oct	70.3	70.0	69.4
Oct 30	10:00	Employment Cost Index	Q3	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec ES: neg with re at 1062 and a target of 1050.00

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1728

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9840

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1045

Dec Silver: potential reversal day

Dec Copper: pos with support at 291

Dec Yen: neg but above daily res at 109.50

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.45

Dec EC: neg with res at 148.30 with a target of 146.80

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 93.80

Dec BP: pos with support at 162.20

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 9128

Dec Crude: pos with support at 77

Jan Soybeans: potential reversal day

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.11

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 118.20

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 121.30

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5639

Dec NKD neg with res at 101.13

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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