Equities up, bonds down and initial jobless claims comes in at -1k.

Top Day Rec

10.29.09

Advance GDP comes in at 3.5%, better than expected and the first expansion since 4 quarterly loses. Also, the deflator at 0.8 is better than the consensus of 1.4.

This inspires repositioning, relief and short covering after yesterday’s action. Equities up, bonds down.

Initial Jobless Claims comes in at -1k.

Motorola earnings comes in better than expected after losing 4 billion dollars over the past two years.

Oct 27	09:00	CaseShiller Home Price Index	Aug	-13.0%	-11.90%	-13.30%
Oct 27	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Oct	52.6	53.5	53.1
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders	Sep	0.5%	1.0%	-2.4%
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders ex Transportation	Sep	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%
Oct 28	10:00	New Home Sales	Sep	450K	440K	429K
Oct 28	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/23	NA	NA	1.31M
Oct 29	08:30	Chain Deflator-Adv.	Q3	1.3%	1.3%	0.0%
Oct 29	08:30	GDP-Adv.	Q3	2.5%	3.2%	-0.7%
Oct 29	08:30	Initial Claims	10/24	520K	525K	531K
Oct 29	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/17	5890K	5915K	5923K
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Income	Sep	-0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Spending	Sep	-0.7%	-0.5%	1.3%
Oct 30	08:30	PCE Prices	Sep	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Oct 30	08:30	Core PCE Prices	Sep	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Oct	51.0	48.7	46.1
Oct 30	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Oct	70.3	70.0	69.4
Oct 30	10:00	Employment Cost Index	Q3	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec ES: neg with res at 1055 with a target of 1030

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1709

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9810

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1039

Dec Silver: neg with res at 1663

Dec Copper: pos with support at 288

Dec Yen: potential reversal day

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 97.98

Dec EC: neg with res at 148.00 with a target of 146.60

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 93.60

Dec BP: pos with support at 163.80 with res at 165.60

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 9100

Dec Crude: pos with support at 76.40

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 9.81

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.05

Dec Ten Year: potential reversal day

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 121.42

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5608

Dec NKD neg with res at 100.66

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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