Better numbers from Ford lifts the market

Top Day Rec

11.02.09

Better numbers for Ford (up 8% in pre market) and positive statements looking forward plus an expansion in Chinese manufacturing sees values generally higher this morning. Of course, last week’s performance was fairly abysmal. UK bank restructuring has pressured that currency.

A wall of numbers: Construction spending, pending home sales and ISM all out at 10.

Wednesday afternoon will see the conclusion of the two day Fed meeting. Watchers will be looking for signs of an exit from the current strategy of stimulus and zero interest rates.

Nov 02	10:00	Construction Spending	Sep	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.8%
Nov 02	10:00	ISM Index	Oct	54.0	53.0	52.6
Nov 02	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Sep	1.2%	-0.1%	6.4%
Nov 03	10:00	Factory Orders	Sep	1.2%	0.9%	-0.8%
Nov 03	14:00	Auto Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 03	14:00	Truck Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 04	07:30	Challenger Job Cuts	Oct	NA	NA	-30.2%
Nov 04	08:15	ADP Employment Report	Oct	-235K	-190K	-254K
Nov 04	10:00	ISM Services	Oct	52.0	51.5	50.9
Nov 04	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/30	NA	NA	0.78M
Nov 04	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	11/4	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 05	08:30	Productivity-Prel	Q3	6.4%	6.5%	6.6%
Nov 05	08:30	Initial Claims	10/31	525K	520K	530K
Nov 05	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/24	5730K	5750K	5797K
Nov 06	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Oct	-230K	-175K	-263K
Nov 06	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Oct	10.0%	9.9%	9.8%
Nov 06	08:30	Average Workweek	Oct	33.0	33.1	33.0
Nov 06	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Oct	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 06	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Sep	-1.1%	-1.0%	-1.3%
Nov 06	14:00	Consumer Credit	Sep	-$10.0B	-$10.3B	-$12.0B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec ES: neg with res at 1042 and 1054

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1679

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9735 and 9830

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1055

Dec Silver: neg with res at 1661 and 16.97

Dec Copper: pos with support at 291.50

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.80

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.27

Dec EC: neg with res at 148.21

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 92.88

Dec BP: pos with support at 163.00

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 9090

Dec Crude: pos with support at 75.90

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 9.97

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.03

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 118.31

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 121.75

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5463

Dec NKD neg with res at 993.00

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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