Two day Fed meeting begins today. The communique will be out at 2:15 tomorrow

Top Day Rec

11.03.09

Overnight, the Dow had been down 100 points and S+P down 10 handles on the idea that worldwide expansion may not be as imminent as some have hoped. Losses were limited by news that Berkshire Hathaway was going to buy the Burlington Northern it doesn’t already own. This obviously reflects a positive eco outlook.

Today begins the beginning of a two day Fed meeting. The communiqué will be out at 2:15 on Wednesday.

Interesting note from last night’s MNF: The New Orleans Saints are supposedly playing with a high tech mouthpiece which aligns the spine and increases range of motion. This was attested to by the announcers who tried them earlier in the day and also backed up by some of the circus catches made by the Saint receivers. Now I see that just this morning, Placebo Industries is introducing a mouthpiece for traders which also aligns the spine for grueling hours of computer slavery and also allows for impeccable buy points and exquisite exit strategies. One small stone produces many circles.

Nov 02	10:00	Construction Spending	Sep	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.8%
Nov 02	10:00	ISM Index	Oct	54.0	53.0	52.6
Nov 02	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Sep	1.2%	-0.1%	6.4%
Nov 03	10:00	Factory Orders	Sep	1.2%	0.9%	-0.8%
Nov 03	14:00	Auto Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 03	14:00	Truck Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 04	07:30	Challenger Job Cuts	Oct	NA	NA	-30.2%
Nov 04	08:15	ADP Employment Report	Oct	-235K	-190K	-254K
Nov 04	10:00	ISM Services	Oct	52.0	51.5	50.9
Nov 04	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/30	NA	NA	0.78M
Nov 04	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	11/4	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 05	08:30	Productivity-Prel	Q3	6.4%	6.5%	6.6%
Nov 05	08:30	Initial Claims	10/31	525K	520K	530K
Nov 05	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/24	5730K	5750K	5797K
Nov 06	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Oct	-230K	-175K	-263K
Nov 06	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Oct	10.0%	9.9%	9.8%
Nov 06	08:30	Average Workweek	Oct	33.0	33.1	33.0
Nov 06	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Oct	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 06	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Sep	-1.1%	-1.0%	-1.3%
Nov 06	14:00	Consumer Credit	Sep	-$10.0B	-$10.3B	-$12.0B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec ES: neg with res at 1038 and 1050

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1669 and 1687

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9715 and 9830

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1064 and 1074

Dec Silver: neg with res at 1650 and 16.69

Dec Copper: potential reversal day (down)

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.50

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 97.30 and 97.85

Dec EC: neg with res at 146.80 and 147.60

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 93.30

Dec BP: potential reversal day (down)

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 89.92

Dec Crude: pos with support at 75.70

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 10.15

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.27

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 119.01

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 121.75

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5412

Dec NKD neg with res at 982.80 with support at 965.80

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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