Markets are higher in the belief that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 2:15 this afternoon`

Top Day Rec

11.04.09

Overnight, foreign equity markets are higher in the belief that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 2:15 this afternoon. FTSE is better by .68, Dax by 1.08 and CAC by 1.45. Gold is higher, a record high as perhaps the fruition of Fed policy. 12.8 trillion in stimulus and negative real rates of interest has to express itself and the bubble seems to have a golden color.

Will the Fed use the communiqué to at least try to talk up the dollar? That’s the question.

Also, some interesting election results last night at the gubernatorial level as voters push back, mainly motivated by higher property taxes. Higher unemployment and higher property taxes is hardly a delicious mix for any incumbent.

ADP private jobs survey sees the economy lost 203K jobs, more than forecast.

Crude inventories at 10:35.

Game 6 at the Stadium. Don’t forget your MLB approved parkas.

Nov 02	10:00	Construction Spending	Sep	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.8%
Nov 02	10:00	ISM Index	Oct	54.0	53.0	52.6
Nov 02	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Sep	1.2%	-0.1%	6.4%
Nov 03	10:00	Factory Orders	Sep	1.2%	0.9%	-0.8%
Nov 03	14:00	Auto Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 03	14:00	Truck Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 04	07:30	Challenger Job Cuts	Oct	NA	NA	-30.2%
Nov 04	08:15	ADP Employment Report	Oct	-235K	-190K	-254K
Nov 04	10:00	ISM Services	Oct	52.0	51.5	50.9
Nov 04	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/30	NA	NA	0.78M
Nov 04	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	11/4	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 05	08:30	Productivity-Prel	Q3	6.4%	6.5%	6.6%
Nov 05	08:30	Initial Claims	10/31	525K	520K	530K
Nov 05	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/24	5730K	5750K	5797K
Nov 06	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Oct	-230K	-175K	-263K
Nov 06	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Oct	10.0%	9.9%	9.8%
Nov 06	08:30	Average Workweek	Oct	33.0	33.1	33.0
Nov 06	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Oct	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 06	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Sep	-1.1%	-1.0%	-1.3%
Nov 06	14:00	Consumer Credit	Sep	-$10.0B	-$10.3B	-$12.0B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec ES: potential reversal day

Dec NQ: potential reversal day

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9785 and 9850

Dec Gold: potential reversal day

Dec Silver: potential reversal day

Dec Copper: neg with res at 3.04

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.20

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.07

Dec EC: neg with res at 148.00

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day

Dec BP: pos with support at 163.70

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 90.60

Dec Crude: pos with support at 78.70

Jan Soybeans: potential reversal day

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.29

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 118.11

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International Markets

Dec Bund: potential reversal day

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5442

Dec NKD neg with res at 990.60

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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