The unemployment rate comes in at 10.2%, the highest since the early 80's, while the job loss number higher than expected

Top Day Rec

11.06.09

And the Unemployment Rate comes in at 10.2%, the highest since the early 80’s while job loss come in at 190K against an expectation of a loss of 175K. 10.2% is fairly ugly and should be hard to spin positively. Remember though it’s a lagging number.

Yesterday, the drop in weekly and continuing claims gave the impression that the monthly number would be better than feared and this in turn set off a round of short covering. This morning, before the release, European markets are all fractionally higher.

The Yankees are congregating just outside our front door at Bowling Green to celebrate their 277^th World Series championship. Sorry, it’s only their 27^th. Just seems like their 277^th. But the impression that they win all the time is not exactly correct. Their previous World Series championship was in 2000 when Daryl Strawberry was on the roster. Seems like yesterday when I passed behind him on the way to work, pulled his shirt tail and ran like, well, you know…

Nov 02	10:00	Construction Spending	Sep	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.8%
Nov 02	10:00	ISM Index	Oct	54.0	53.0	52.6
Nov 02	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Sep	1.2%	-0.1%	6.4%
Nov 03	10:00	Factory Orders	Sep	1.2%	0.9%	-0.8%
Nov 03	14:00	Auto Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 03	14:00	Truck Sales	Oct	NA	NA	NA
Nov 04	07:30	Challenger Job Cuts	Oct	NA	NA	-30.2%
Nov 04	08:15	ADP Employment Report	Oct	-235K	-190K	-254K
Nov 04	10:00	ISM Services	Oct	52.0	51.5	50.9
Nov 04	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/30	NA	NA	0.78M
Nov 04	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	11/4	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 05	08:30	Productivity-Prel	Q3	6.4%	6.5%	6.6%
Nov 05	08:30	Initial Claims	10/31	525K	520K	530K
Nov 05	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/24	5730K	5750K	5797K
Nov 06	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Oct	-230K	-175K	-263K
Nov 06	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Oct	10.0%	9.9%	9.8%
Nov 06	08:30	Average Workweek	Oct	33.0	33.1	33.0
Nov 06	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Oct	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 06	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Sep	-1.1%	-1.0%	-1.3%
Nov 06	14:00	Consumer Credit	Sep	-$10.0B	-$10.3B	-$12.0B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec ES: pos with support at 1047.00

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1686.50

Dec Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1084

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.24

Dec Copper: neg with res at 3.02

Dec Yen: neg with res at 110.85

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 98.99

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.70

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 93.27

Dec BP: pos with support at 164.80

Dec Aussie: potential reversal day

Dec Crude: pos with support at 78.64

Jan Soybeans: neg with rest at 10.05

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.24

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 118.15

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International Markets

Dec Bund: neg with res at 121.42

Dec Dax: potential reversal day

Dec NKD pos with support at 9728

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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