Gold continues to move  higher while the dollar continues to be sold to finance carry trades

Top Day Rec

11.09

No eco data points today and for a few days actually. With the unemployment rate at 10.2%, it’s hard to imagine the Fed changing rate policy. In fact, it’s apparent that G-20 isn’t about to take away the stimulus punch bowl and the consequence is another high for gold and European markets higher by 1.35% to 1.63%. Gold continues to imply that the world is awash with excess liquidity while the dollar continues to be sold to finance carry trades. The problem with openings like these is that many times the highs are made overnight so chasing them is usually the wrong approach.

The Houston Ship Channel is closed due to Hurricane Ida and this is a positive for crude.

The parade of the conquering Yankees seems like it happened last month. At the same time, the fall of the Berlin Wall was 20 years ago. Time and its infinite tricks.     

Nov 12	08:30	Initial Claims	11/07		525K	510K	512K
Nov 12	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/31		5700K	5700K	5749K
Nov 12	11:00	Crude Inventories	11/06		NA	NA	-3.94M
Nov 12	14:00	Treasury Budget	Oct		-$150.0B	-$150.0B	-$155.5B
Nov 13	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Oct		NA	NA	NA
Nov 13	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Oct		NA	NA	NA
Nov 13	08:30	Trade Balance	Sep		-$30.0B	-$31.9B	-$30.7B
Nov 13	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Nov		70.5	71.8	70.6

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec ES: pos with support at 1056.50

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1710.50 

Dec Mini Dow: pos with res at 10086and support at 995.30

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1095

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.42       

Dec Copper: neg with res at 3.04

Dec Yen: potential reversal day        

Dec Swiss: neg but above daily res of 9913       

Dec EC: neg but abaove daily res of 149.50

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day    

Dec BP:  pos with support at 165.80

Dec Aussie: pos with support at 91.19  

Dec Crude: potential reversal day       

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 9.74   

Mar Wheat: potential reversal day    

Dec Ten Year:  potential reversal day     

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International Markets

Dec Bund: neg with res at 121.30   

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5477

Dec NKD pos with support at 9780

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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