Markets are up overnight as Pacific Rim countries pledge to maintain stimulus policies

Top Day Rec

11.16

Busy week. Markets are up overnight as Pac Rim countries pledge to maintain stimulus policies.

Retail Sales come in better with a downward revision last month while Empire State Manufacturing comes in better than expectation. On this, overnight gains are trimmed and bonds climb. Anecdotally, traffic at the Westchester Mall Sunday, with the exception of the Apple store, seemed light.

Nov 16	08:30	Retail Sales	Oct	0.7%	0.9%	-1.5%
Nov 16	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Oct	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%
Nov 16	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Nov	20.5	30.00	34.57
Nov 16	10:00	Business Inventories	Sep	-1.0%	-0.7%	-1.5%
Nov 17	08:30	Core PPI	Oct	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 17	08:30	PPI	Oct	0.7%	0.5%	-0.6%
Nov 17	09:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Sep	$30.0B	$35.0B	$28.6B
Nov 17	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Oct	70.5%	70.8%	70.5%
Nov 17	09:15	Industrial Production	Oct	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%
Nov 18	08:30	Housing Starts	Oct	585K	600K	590K
Nov 18	08:30	Building Permits	Oct	585K	580K	573K
Nov 18	08:30	CPI	Oct	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Nov 18	08:30	Core CPI	Oct	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Nov 18	10:30	Crude Inventories	11/13	NA	NA	1.76M
Nov 19	08:30	Initial Claims	11/14	510K	504K	502K
Nov 19	08:30	Continuing Claims	11/13	5580K	5600K	5631K
Nov 19	10:00	Leading Indicators	Oct	0.5%	0.4%	1.0%
Nov 19	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Nov	12.0	12.0	11.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

Dec ES: pos with res at 1103.50

Dec NQ: pos with res at 1805.00

Dec Mini Dow: pos with res at 1033

Dec Gold: pos with res at 1131.00

Dec Silver: pos with res at 17.72

Dec Copper: neg but above daily res of 301.00

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.00

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 99.48

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.98

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 95.06

Dec BP: neg with res at 167.80

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 93.38

Dec Crude: potential reversal day

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 10.02

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.56

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 118.25

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International Markets

Dec Bund: potential reversal day

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5724

Dec NKD potential reversal day

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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