Gold futures cranks out new highs taking copper with it

Top Day Rec

11.18

The CPI comes in at 0.3 against an expectation of 0.2 while Housing Starts come in at 529K versus 600K expected.

Overnight, the dollar is weaker but we continue to range trade with bullish days taking the place of bearish days and vice versa. Gold, the anti-currency, cranks out a new high and takes copper with it. December crude goes into front month expiration pressures with the DOE numbers out later this morning. API last night stated that crude stocks fell by a surprising 4.7 million barrels last week but some of this can be blamed on Hurricane Ida and the closing of the Houston Shipping Channel last week.

Nov 16	08:30	Retail Sales	Oct	0.7%	0.9%	-1.5%
Nov 16	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Oct	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%
Nov 16	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Nov	20.5	30.00	34.57
Nov 16	10:00	Business Inventories	Sep	-1.0%	-0.7%	-1.5%
Nov 17	08:30	Core PPI	Oct	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 17	08:30	PPI	Oct	0.7%	0.5%	-0.6%
Nov 17	09:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Sep	$30.0B	$35.0B	$28.6B
Nov 17	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Oct	70.5%	70.8%	70.5%
Nov 17	09:15	Industrial Production	Oct	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%
Nov 18	08:30	Housing Starts	Oct	585K	600K	590K
Nov 18	08:30	Building Permits	Oct	585K	580K	573K
Nov 18	08:30	CPI	Oct	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Nov 18	08:30	Core CPI	Oct	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Nov 18	10:30	Crude Inventories	11/13	NA	NA	1.76M
Nov 19	08:30	Initial Claims	11/14	510K	504K	502K
Nov 19	08:30	Continuing Claims	11/13	5580K	5600K	5631K
Nov 19	10:00	Leading Indicators	Oct	0.5%	0.4%	1.0%
Nov 19	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Nov	12.0	12.0	11.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

Dec ES: pos with support at 1096.50

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1798.75

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 1034

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1125.00

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.95

Dec Copper: pos with support at 308.50

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.58

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 99.15

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.65

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 94.27

Dec BP: neg with res at 168.60

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 93.39

Jan Crude: pos with support at 78.80

Jan Soybeans: potential reversal day

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.83

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 119.13

Dec 30 Year : pos with support at 120.13

Mar Eurodollar: pos with support at 99.615

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.92

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5750

Dec NKD pos with daily support at 9700

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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