Weekly unemployment claims came in at unchanged, dollar strengthens overnight

Top Day Rec

11.19

Today is the last day for eco data points for the week.

Weekly unemployment claims came in at unchanged.

Leading Economic Indicators at 10:00 and anecdotal reports from the Philly Fed.

Overnight, the market comes off again as the dollar strengthens. For all the bashing the dollar is getting in the press, the dollar index is still higher than it was on October 20^th.

Crude stocks from the Department of Energy were price positive yesterday but some of that has to be attributed to Hurricane Ida and the closing of the Houston shipping channel last week.

Nov 16	08:30	Retail Sales	Oct	0.7%	0.9%	-1.5%
Nov 16	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Oct	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%
Nov 16	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Nov	20.5	30.00	34.57
Nov 16	10:00	Business Inventories	Sep	-1.0%	-0.7%	-1.5%
Nov 17	08:30	Core PPI	Oct	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Nov 17	08:30	PPI	Oct	0.7%	0.5%	-0.6%
Nov 17	09:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Sep	$30.0B	$35.0B	$28.6B
Nov 17	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Oct	70.5%	70.8%	70.5%
Nov 17	09:15	Industrial Production	Oct	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%
Nov 18	08:30	Housing Starts	Oct	585K	600K	590K
Nov 18	08:30	Building Permits	Oct	585K	580K	573K
Nov 18	08:30	CPI	Oct	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Nov 18	08:30	Core CPI	Oct	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Nov 18	10:30	Crude Inventories	11/13	NA	NA	1.76M
Nov 19	08:30	Initial Claims	11/14	510K	504K	502K
Nov 19	08:30	Continuing Claims	11/13	5580K	5600K	5631K
Nov 19	10:00	Leading Indicators	Oct	0.5%	0.4%	1.0%
Nov 19	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Nov	12.0	12.0	11.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

Dec ES: pos with support at 1096.50

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1776.50

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 1030

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1133.60 and 1127.0

Dec Silver: possible reversal day

Dec Copper: pos with support at 307.50

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.60

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 99.30

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.30

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day

Dec BP: neg with res at 167.60

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 92.68

Jan Crude: pos with support at 79.26

Jan Soybeans: neg with res at 10.33

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.75

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 119.08

Dec 30 Year : pos with support at 120.04

Mar Eurodollar: pos with support at 99.64

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.99

Dec Dax: potential reversal day

Dec NKD positive but below daily support of 9590

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Futures Trading Systems