Perception of interest rate remaining perpetually low allows certain markets to continue to inflate

Top Day Rec

11.23

Existing home sales at 10. Of course this is a short week with Thanksgiving on Thursday. As a large percentage of Wall Street grew up somewhere else, the population starts to thin out with each succeeding day.

Overnight, the perception is that interest rates will remain perpetually low and this will allow certain assets to continue to inflate.

Nov 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Oct	5.85M	5.70M	5.57M
Nov 24	08:30	GDP - Preliminary	Q3	2.8%	2.9%	3.5%
Nov 24	08:30	GDP Deflator - Preliminary	Q3	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Nov 24	09:00	Case Shiller 20 City Index	Sep	-9.25%	-9.05%	-11.32%
Nov 24	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Nov	46.3	47.5	47.7
Nov 24	10:00	FHFA Home Price Index	Sep	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Nov 25	08:30	Personal Income	Oct	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Nov 25	08:30	Personal Spending	Oct	0.3%	0.5%	-0.5%
Nov 25	08:30	PCE Prices	Oct	0.2%	0.1%	-0.5%
Nov 25	08:30	PCE Prices - Core	Oct	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 25	08:30	Initial Claims	11/21	510K	500K	505K
Nov 25	08:30	Continuing Claims	11/14	5630K	5560K	5611K
Nov 25	08:30	Durable Orders	Oct	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%
Nov 25	08:30	Durable Orders ex Transportation	Oct	0.5%	0.7%	0.9%
Nov 25	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Nov	65.0	67.0	66.0
Nov 25	10:00	New Home Sales	Oct	420K	405K	402K
Nov 25	10:30	Crude Inventories	11/20	NA	NA	-0.887K

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

Dec ES: potential reversal day

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1783

Dec Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1143.00

Dec Silver: neg with res at 18.91

Mar Copper: pos with support at 312.00

Dec Yen: neg with res at 113.00

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 99.27

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.98

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 94.60

Dec BP: neg with res at 167.55

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 92.74

Jan Crude: potential reversal day

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 10.42

Mar Wheat: neg with res at 6.02

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 119.04

Dec 30 Year : neg with res at 121.08

Mar Eurodollar: pos with support at 99.64

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 122.77

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5791

Dec NKD positive with support at 9403

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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