Dubai debt reschedule shook up the markets around the globe

Top Day Rec

11.27

No eco releases today but markets extremely volatile anyway. Dubai debt reschedule really shook up the troops in an illiquid moment due to the holiday. Check with trading desks about potential early closings. Gold going into first notice day. Europe starting to rebound.

Nov 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Oct	5.85M	5.70M	5.57M
Nov 24	08:30	GDP - Preliminary	Q3	2.8%	2.9%	3.5%
Nov 24	08:30	GDP Deflator - Preliminary	Q3	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Nov 24	09:00	Case Shiller 20 City Index	Sep	-9.25%	-9.05%	-11.32%
Nov 24	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Nov	46.3	47.5	47.7
Nov 24	10:00	FHFA Home Price Index	Sep	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Nov 25	08:30	Personal Income	Oct	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Nov 25	08:30	Personal Spending	Oct	0.3%	0.5%	-0.5%
Nov 25	08:30	PCE Prices	Oct	0.2%	0.1%	-0.5%
Nov 25	08:30	PCE Prices - Core	Oct	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 25	08:30	Initial Claims	11/21	510K	500K	505K
Nov 25	08:30	Continuing Claims	11/14	5630K	5560K	5611K
Nov 25	08:30	Durable Orders	Oct	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%
Nov 25	08:30	Durable Orders ex Transportation	Oct	0.5%	0.7%	0.9%
Nov 25	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Nov	65.0	67.0	66.0
Nov 25	10:00	New Home Sales	Oct	420K	405K	402K
Nov 25	10:30	Crude Inventories	11/20	NA	NA	-0.887K

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

Dec ES: pos with support at 1065

Dec NQ: neg with res at support at 1713

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 1098

Feb Gold: Dec going into 1^st notice. 84 RSI should have concerned complacency. Dubai debt rescheduling was a left hook the market never saw. Market below support of 1175 basis Feb

Mar Silver: neg with res at 18.45

Mar Copper: pos with support at 305

Dec Yen: pos with support at 113.70

Dec Swiss: pos with support at 98.35

Dec EC: pos with support at 148.55

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 94.65

Dec BP: neg with res at 166.60

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 92.50

Jan Crude: neg with res at 77.50

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 10.26

Mar Wheat: neg with res at 5.79

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 120.21

Dec 30 Year : pos with support at 122.17

Mar Eurodollar: neg with res at 99.64

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 123.00

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5740

Dec NKD neg with res at 9370

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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