When the market doesn't understand what's going on, everything gets sold

Top Day Rec

11.30

Last week didn’t provide much rest for the weary thanks to Dubai and this week is full of data starting with today’s release of Chicago Area Purchasing Manager’s Index and culminating with Friday’s unemployment number. Dubai’s debt rescheduling problems are considerable but fairly localized. Tread carefully, however. Last week’s action was classic in that when the market doesn’t understand what’s going on, everything gets sold.

Nov 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Nov	52.5	53.3	54.2
Dec 01	10:00	Construction Spending	Oct	-0.7%	-0.4%	0.8%
Dec 01	10:00	ISM Index	Nov	54.0	54.8	55.7
Dec 01	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Oct	-3.0%	-0.5%	6.1%
Dec 01	14:00	Auto Sales	Nov	NA	NA	NA
Dec 01	14:00	Truck Sales	Nov	NA	NA	NA
Dec 02	07:30	Challenger Job Cuts	Nov	NA	NA	-50.7%
Dec 02	08:15	ADP Employment Report	Nov	-175K	-148K	-203K
Dec 02	10:30	Crude Inventories	11/27	NA	NA	1.02M
Dec 02	14:00	Fed Beige Book	Nov
Dec 03	08:30	Initial Claims	11/28	500K	483K	466K
Dec 03	08:30	Continuing Claims	11/21	5550K	5517K	5423K
Dec 03	08:30	Productivity-Rev.	Q3	NA	8.5%	9.5%
Dec 03	08:30	Employment Cost Index	Q3	0.4%	NA	0.4%
Dec 03	10:00	ISM Services	Nov	50.7	51.5	50.6
Dec 04	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Nov	-150K	-114K	-190K
Dec 04	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Nov	10.3%	10.2%	10.2%
Dec 04	08:30	Average Workweek	Nov	33.0	33.1	33.0
Dec 04	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Nov	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
Dec 04	10:00	Factory Orders	Oct	-0.5%	0.1%	0.9%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

Dec ES: pos with support at 1067.25

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1796

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 10116

Feb Gold: pos with support at 1142

Mar Silver: neg with res at 18.95

Mar Copper: pos with support at 303

Dec Yen: pos with support at 113.72

Dec Swiss: pos with support at 98.20

Dec EC: pos with support at 148.10

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 95.50

Dec BP: neg with res at 167.20

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 92.60

Jan Crude: neg with res at 78.50

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 10.30

Mar Wheat: potential reversal day

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 120.16

Dec 30 Year : pos with support at 122.14

Mar Eurodollar: neg with res at 99.64

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 123.16

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5775

Dec NKD neg with res at 9480

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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