The crude inventories down 3.7 million barrels, unleaded gas  inventories up 900,000 barrels

Top Day Rec

12.16.09

Consumer Price Index comes in at 0.4% with Housing Starts better by 574K. These numbers are within the range of expectations.

The Crude Inventories out at 10:30.

Of course the big event is the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 2:15 and its communiqué. Tread lightly. Quantum market moves possible. While it’s widely believed, universally trusted, that rates will remain unchanged, the verbiage will be scrutinized. With the yield on the 10 year at 3.60, are rates already backing up on their own? Open attachment.

     

This Week's Calendar

Date	ET	Release	For	Actual	Briefing.com	Consensus	Prior
Dec 15	08:30	Core PPI	Nov		0.1%	0.2%	-0.6%
Dec 15	08:30	PPI	Nov		0.6%	0.8%	0.3%
Dec 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Dec		21.00	24.00	23.51
Dec 15	09:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Oct		$38.7B	$42.3B	$40.7B
Dec 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Nov		71.4%	71.1%	70.7%
Dec 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Nov		0.7%	0.5%	0.1%
Dec 16	08:30	Building Permits	Nov		560K	570K	552K
Dec 16	08:30	Housing Starts	Nov		545K	578K	529K
Dec 16	08:30	CPI	Nov		0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Dec 16	08:30	Core CPI	Nov		0.0%	0.1%	0.3%
Dec 16	10:30	Crude Inventories	12/11		NA	NA	-3.82M
Dec 16	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	Dec 16		0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Dec 17	8:30	Initial Claims	12/12		450K	465K	474K
Dec 17	08:30	Continuing Claims	12/5		5250K	5170K	5157K
Dec17	10:00	Leading Indicators	Nov		0.6%	0.7%	0.3%
Dec 17	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Dec		17.5	16.0	16.7

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

 

Mar ES: pos with support at 1099.00

Mar NQ: pos with support at 1787.00   

Mar Mini Dow: pos with support at 1035   

Feb Gold: neg with res at 1139.0

Mar Silver: potential reversal day       

Mar Copper: neg with res at 319.50  

Mar Yen: pos with support at 110.85        

Mar Swiss: neg with res at 96.80         

Mar EC: neg with res at 146.15  

Mar Canadian: neg with res at 94.70       

Mar BP:  neg with res at 163.66    

Mar Aussie: neg with res at 90.03     

Feb Crude: potential reversal day         

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 10.46    

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.32        

Mar Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.13  

Mar 30 Year : neg with res at 117.17

June Eurodollar: neg with res at 99.39

 

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International Markets

Mar Bund: pos with support at 122.20   

Mar Dax: neg with res at 5884

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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