Stock and Commodity Futures Markets Likely Quiet Today

Top Day Rec

04.13.09

Markets should be relatively quiet today as Europe takes the day off for Easter Monday. Without new data points or a compelling theme, markets should revisit recent ranges. Retail sales out tomorrow should generate some heat.

Apr 14	08:30	Core PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 14	08:30	PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Mar	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Mar	0.2%	0.1%	0.7%
Apr 14	10:00	Business Inventories	Feb	-1.2%	-1.1%	-1.1%
Apr 15	08:30	Core CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 15	08:30	CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Apr 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Apr	-36.0	-35.0	-38.2
Apr 15	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Feb	NA	NA	-$43.0B
Apr 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Mar	69.7%	69.7%	70.9%
Apr 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Mar	-0.9%	-0.9%	-1.4%
Apr 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	04/10	NA	NA	+1645K
Apr 15	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Apr 16	08:30	Building Permits	Mar	545K	550K	547K
Apr 16	08:30	Housing Starts	Mar	560K	550K	583K
Apr 16	08:30	Initial Claims	04/11	645K	NA	654K
Apr 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Apr	-32.0	-32.0	-35.0
Apr 17	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Apr	59.0	58.5	57.3

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: neg with res at 100.20

June Swiss: neg with res at 8810

June EC: neg with res at 132.80

June Canadian: positive with support at 80.80

June BP: neg with res at 148.80

June ES: positive with support at 832

June NQ: positive with support at 1309

June Russell: pos with support at 446

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 7860

Jun Gold: pos with support at 883

May Silver: pos with support at 12.17

June crude: positive with support at 51.50

May Soybeans: positive with support at 9.88

May Wheat: neg with res at 5.365

June Ten Year: neg with res at 123.05

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 122.65

June Dax: pos with support at 4265

NK: potential reversal day

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.