US Dollar Futures Modestly Higher

Top Day Rec

04.15.09

Happy Tax Day. CPI comes in at -0.1% but the core rate is higher at +0.2%. Weak retail sales yesterday was a stock market negative as was the earnings release by Intel and the guidance it provided going forward. Overnight, the dollar is modestly higher while oil is on the fence ahead of the release of the Department of Energy numbers at 10:30.

As mentioned yesterday, “Current focus for cross currency traders is BP vs. EC with sellers emerging in the EC.”

Apr 14	08:30	Core PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 14	08:30	PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Mar	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Mar	0.2%	0.1%	0.7%
Apr 14	10:00	Business Inventories	Feb	-1.2%	-1.1%	-1.1%
Apr 15	08:30	Core CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 15	08:30	CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Apr 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Apr	-36.0	-35.0	-38.2
Apr 15	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Feb	NA	NA	-$43.0B
Apr 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Mar	69.7%	69.7%	70.9%
Apr 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Mar	-0.9%	-0.9%	-1.4%
Apr 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	04/10	NA	NA	+1645K
Apr 15	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Apr 16	08:30	Building Permits	Mar	545K	550K	547K
Apr 16	08:30	Housing Starts	Mar	560K	550K	583K
Apr 16	08:30	Initial Claims	04/11	645K	NA	654K
Apr 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Apr	-32.0	-32.0	-35.0
Apr 17	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Apr	59.0	58.5	57.3

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: potential reversal day

June Swiss: neg with res at 8850

June EC: neg with res at 133.60

June Canadian: positive with support at 81.80

June BP: potential reversal day

June ES: positive with support at 824

June NQ: positive with support at 1310

June Russell: potential reversal day

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 7730

Jun Gold: pos with support at 881

May Silver: pos with support at 12.45

June crude: potential reversal day

May Soybeans: positive with support at 10.19

May Wheat: neg with res at 5.30

June Ten Year: potential reversal day

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 122.80

June Dax: pos with support at 4485

NK: pos with support at 8800

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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