Weekly Jobless Claims Up

Top Day Rec

04.16.09

JP Morgan Chase beats the Street. Weekly jobless claims at 610K versus 663K but continuing claims indicate that 6 million are receiving ongoing assistance. Also, last week included Easter and Passover so claims would have to be adjusted. Continuing claims is a sobering number; highest in 26 years. Housing starts and Building permits both contract. Philly Fed out at 10.

Apr 14	08:30	Core PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 14	08:30	PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Mar	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Mar	0.2%	0.1%	0.7%
Apr 14	10:00	Business Inventories	Feb	-1.2%	-1.1%	-1.1%
Apr 15	08:30	Core CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 15	08:30	CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Apr 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Apr	-36.0	-35.0	-38.2
Apr 15	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Feb	NA	NA	-$43.0B
Apr 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Mar	69.7%	69.7%	70.9%
Apr 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Mar	-0.9%	-0.9%	-1.4%
Apr 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	04/10	NA	NA	+1645K
Apr 15	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Apr 16	08:30	Building Permits	Mar	545K	550K	547K
Apr 16	08:30	Housing Starts	Mar	560K	550K	583K
Apr 16	08:30	Initial Claims	04/11	645K	NA	654K
Apr 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Apr	-32.0	-32.0	-35.0
Apr 17	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Apr	59.0	58.5	57.3

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: neg with res at 101.80

June Swiss: neg with res at 8800

June EC: neg with res at 132.70

June Canadian: positive with support at 82.25

June BP: pos with support at 147.25

June ES: positive with support at 836.50

June NQ: positive with support at 1300

June Russell: positive with support at 451

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 7870

Jun Gold: pos with support at 878

May Silver: pos with support at 12.51

June crude: neg with res at 54

May Soybeans: positive with support at 10.25

May Wheat: neg with res at 5.25

June Ten Year: pos with support at 123.01

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 123.20

June Dax: pos with support at 4495

NK: pos with support at 8800

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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