Stronger Dollar and Weak Gold Futures Prices

Top Day Rec

04.17.09

Citigroup beats the Street on trading and new financial accounting rules while GE comes in better as well although the headwinds remain strong. Jean Claude Trichet of the EC states that EC must due all it can to restore confidence which to the currency market translates as a continuing reluctance to drop interest rates and EC is subsequently down 123 this morning.

Stronger dollar means lower gold and it’s off $8 this morning.

U of Michigan consumer confidence survey the only data point today with a release at 9:55 NYT.

Apr 14	08:30	Core PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 14	08:30	PPI	Mar	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Mar	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Mar	0.2%	0.1%	0.7%
Apr 14	10:00	Business Inventories	Feb	-1.2%	-1.1%	-1.1%
Apr 15	08:30	Core CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Apr 15	08:30	CPI	Mar	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Apr 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Apr	-36.0	-35.0	-38.2
Apr 15	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Feb	NA	NA	-$43.0B
Apr 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Mar	69.7%	69.7%	70.9%
Apr 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Mar	-0.9%	-0.9%	-1.4%
Apr 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	04/10	NA	NA	+1645K
Apr 15	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Apr 16	08:30	Building Permits	Mar	545K	550K	547K
Apr 16	08:30	Housing Starts	Mar	560K	550K	583K
Apr 16	08:30	Initial Claims	04/11	645K	NA	654K
Apr 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Apr	-32.0	-32.0	-35.0
Apr 17	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Apr	59.0	58.5	57.3

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: neg with res at 101.40

June Swiss: neg with res at 8770

June EC: neg with res at 132.40

June Canadian: positive with support at 81.55

June BP: pos with support at 147.00

June ES: positive with support at 830.00

June NQ: positive with support at 1288

June Russell: positive with support at 457

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 794

Jun Gold: pos with support at 861

May Silver: pos with support at 11.75

June crude: neg with res at 53.60

May Soybeans: positive with support at 10.42

May Wheat: neg with res at 5.30

June Ten Year: pos with support at 122.19

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 122.90

June Dax: pos with support at 4545

NK: pos with support at 8810

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

Please feel free to visit www.vfmarkets.com. For those without accts use 999999 and 4155 as a pin for access. (pin changes monthly)

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Charles Kespert

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