Worse than Expected GDP Numbers/FOMC decision at 2:15pm

Top Day Rec

04.29.09

Nominal GDP comes in worse than expected. We also get crude stocks at 10:30 and over riding everything is the 2:15 release of the FOMC communiqué regarding short term rates and the general health of the economy. 6 out of 19 banks need more capital. 66 confirmed cases of swine flu and one reported death of an infant.

Remember that FOMC decision days can roil markets so limit exposures.

Apr 28	09:00	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	Feb	NA	-18.7%	-18.97%
Apr 28	10:00	Consumer Confidence	Apr	29.5	29.9	26.0
Apr 29	08:30	GDP-Adv.	Q1	-4.0%	-4.9%	-6.3%
Apr 29	08:30	Chain Deflator-Adv.	Q1	1.7%	1.7%	0.5%
Apr 29	10:35	Crude Inventories	04/24	NA	NA	+3857K
Apr 29	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision		NA	NA	0.00%-0.25%
Apr 30	08:30	Initial Claims	04/25	640K	645K	640K
Apr 30	08:30	Personal Income	Mar	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Apr 30	08:30	Personal Spending	Mar	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
Apr 30	08:30	Employment Cost Index	Q1	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Apr 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Apr	34.0	34.0	31.4
May 01	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Apr	62.0	61.5	61.9
May 01	10:00	Factory Orders	Mar	-0.4%	-0.7%	1.8%
May 01	10:00	ISM Index	Apr	38.0	38.0	36.3
May 01	14:00	Auto Sales	Apr	NA	NA	3.3M
May 01	14:00	Truck Sales	Apr	NA	NA	3.8M

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: pos with support at 102.75

June Swiss: positive with support at 86.64

June EC: positive with support at 130.15

June Canadian: positive with support at 81.96

June BP: neg with res at 148.30.

June ES: potential reversal day

June NQ: positive with support at 1385

June Russell: positive with support at 462

June Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Jun Gold: potential reversal day

May Silver: pos with support at 12.17

June crude: potential reversal day; also, stats day

July Soybeans: potential reversal day

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.15

June Ten Year: positive with support at 121.08

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 123.31

June Dax: pos with support at 4568

NK: pos with support of 852

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.