Jobless Claims Above 600k Still a Major Problem

Top Day Rec

04.30.09

Weekly jobless claims come in -14K to 631K which is ok but claims above 600K is still a major problem. Spending was lower by 0.02% which induced just a bit of profit taking in stocks which are relentlessly higher. Stocks are headed for their best monthly performance in 9 years. Although stock buyers think that consumer spending shows improvement, Starbucks can’t detect this in their receipts. Chrysler is heading for structured bankruptcy.

Apr 28	09:00	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	Feb	NA	-18.7%	-18.97%
Apr 28	10:00	Consumer Confidence	Apr	29.5	29.9	26.0
Apr 29	08:30	GDP-Adv.	Q1	-4.0%	-4.9%	-6.3%
Apr 29	08:30	Chain Deflator-Adv.	Q1	1.7%	1.7%	0.5%
Apr 29	10:35	Crude Inventories	04/24	NA	NA	+3857K
Apr 29	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision		NA	NA	0.00%-0.25%
Apr 30	08:30	Initial Claims	04/25	640K	645K	640K
Apr 30	08:30	Personal Income	Mar	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Apr 30	08:30	Personal Spending	Mar	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
Apr 30	08:30	Employment Cost Index	Q1	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Apr 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Apr	34.0	34.0	31.4
May 01	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Apr	62.0	61.5	61.9
May 01	10:00	Factory Orders	Mar	-0.4%	-0.7%	1.8%
May 01	10:00	ISM Index	Apr	38.0	38.0	36.3
May 01	14:00	Auto Sales	Apr	NA	NA	3.3M
May 01	14:00	Truck Sales	Apr	NA	NA	3.8M

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: pos with support at 101.20

June Swiss: positive with support at 87.50

June EC: positive with support at 131.50

June Canadian: positive with support at 82.30

June BP: neg with res at 149.30.

June ES: positive with support at 852.50

June NQ: positive with support at 1357

June Russell: positive with support at 475

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 798

Jun Gold: pos with support at 882

May Silver: pos with support at 12.25

June crude: positive with support at 49.60

July Soybeans: positive with support at 9.93

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.22

June Ten Year: potential reversal day

**************

International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 123.40

June Dax: pos with support at 4650

NK: pos with support of 872

***********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.