Stock Futures are Modestly Lower/Gold Futures Higher on Weak Dollar

Top Day Rec

05.05.09

Happy Cinco de Mayo. Just ISM services index out at 10. Stocks are modestly lower as it is now believed that the Fed’s stress test will show that maybe as many as 10 banks will need to raise money. Gold is higher on a weaker dollar. Short term money remains cheap. Price stagnation in housing prices is now taken for optimism. Of course, there’s the big number waiting at the end of the week; unemployment. ADP private forecast out tomorrow and that always manages to roil the markets often in a misleading way.    

 

 

May 04	10:00	Construction Spending	Mar		NA	-1.4%	-0.9%
May 04	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Mar		NA	0.0%	2.1%
May 05	10:00	ISM Services	Apr		NA	42.0	40.8
May 06	08:15	ADP Employment Change	Apr		NA	-643K	-742K
May 06	10:30	Crude Inventories	05/01		NA	NA	+4053K
May 07	08:30	Initial Claims	05/02		NA	NA	NA
May 07	08:30	Productivity-Prel	Q1		NA	0.9%	-0.4%
May 07	08:30	Unit Labor Costs	Q1		NA	2.5%	5.7%
May 07	15:00	Consumer Credit	Mar		NA	-$3.3B	-$7.5B
May 08	08:30	Average Workweek	Apr		NA	33.2	33.2
May 08	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Apr		NA	0.2%	0.2%
May 08	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Apr		NA	-620K	-663K
May 08	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Apr		NA	8.9%	8.5%
May 08	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Mar		NA	-1.0%	-1.5%

   

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: neg with res at 10150 and 101.85  

June Swiss: positive with support at 87.85

June EC: positive with support at 132.50   

June Canadian: positive with support at 84.25

June BP:  pos with support at 148.50.     

June ES: positive with support at 885.25

June NQ: positive with support at 1405  

June Russell: positive with support at 491.50   

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 8230

Jun Gold: positive with support at 899    

July Silver: pos with support at 12.65

June crude: positive with support at 53.15         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 10.83

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.41

June Ten Year: neg with res at 12105 and 121.11       

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 122.50        

June Dax: pos with support at 4832

NK: pos with support of 9209

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.