Crude Oil Futures Prices Approaching 60 Dollar Level

Top Day Rec

05.14

Claims come in higher than expected as do continuing claims. The Producer Price Index inches higher while the core rate barely budges. Yesterday, stocks turned tail after being bitten there by a weak retail sales report.

Crude stocks were lower but a lower stock market took the price lower as did the idea that OPEC would increase production as the price approaches 60 bucks to the barrel.

May 12	08:30	Trade Balance	Mar	-$29.5B	-$29.2B	-$26.0B
May 12	14:00	Treasury Budget	Apr	NA	-$63.0B	$159.3B
May 13	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Apr	NA	NA	0.1%
May 13	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Apr	NA	NA	-0.6%
May 13	08:30	Retail Sales	Apr	-0.2%	-0.1%	-1.2%
May 13	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Apr	0.0%	0.0%	-1.0%
May 13	10:00	Business Inventories	Mar	-1.0%	-1.1%	-1.3%
May 13	10:30	Crude Inventories	05/08	NA	NA	+605K
May 14	08:30	Core PPI	Apr	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
May 14	08:30	Initial Claims	05/09	580k	NA	601K
May 14	08:30	PPI	Apr	0.2%	0.1%	-1.2%
May 15	08:30	Core CPI	Apr	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
May 15	08:30	CPI	Apr	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%
May 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	May	-14.0	-15.0	-14.65
May 15	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows		NA	NA	$22.0B
May 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Apr	69.1%	68.9%	69.3%
May 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Apr	-0.4%	-0.6%	-1.5%
May 15	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	May	65.2	65.0	65.1

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: pos with support at 103.75 still buoyed on risk aversion.

June Swiss: positive with support at 89.54

June EC: positive with support at 134.75

June Canadian: positive with support at 84.55

June BP: pos with support at 149.50.

June ES: neg with res at 905

June NQ: potential reversal day

June Russell: neg with res at 491

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 8195

Jun Gold: positive with support at 912

July Silver: pos with support at 13.60

July crude: positive with support at 57.00

July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.12

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.75

June Ten Year: positive with support at 121.05

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 122.14

June Dax: pos with support at 4575

NK: neg with res at 9290

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.