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Unemployment comes in at a loss of 85K but a gain in Nov of 4k with the headline number at 10%

Top Day Rec

01.08.10

Unemployment comes in at a loss of 85K but a gain in

Nov of 4K with the headline number at 10%. Average

weekly hours were flat.

The expectation was for 10% with no change in payrolls.

Standard deviation for error in the unemployment

number is just under +/-100K for this number.

A mixed report, slightly negative.

The initial reaction was dollar negative.

So far, this day has been a comedy of error. I put a pear

in my coat pocket this morning which in short order

turned into a liquid. I nearly leave my gloves in

Starbucks, I nearly get hit by a cab. I nearly get

crunched to death by the elevator and I nearly deleted

this report. A lot of “nears.” Maybe I should feel lucky.

This Week's Calendar

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior

Revised From

Jan 0410:00ConstructionSpendingNov -0.1% -0.5% 0.0%

Jan 0410:00ISM Index Dec 55.3 54.1 53.6

Jan 0510:00Factory Orders Nov 0.1% 0.5% 0.6%

Jan 0510:00Pending HomeSales

Nov 2.0% -3.0% 3.7%

Jan 0514:00Auto Sales Dec NA NA 3.8M

Jan 0514:00Truck Sales Dec NA NA 4.6M

Jan 0607:30Challenger Job Cuts Dec NA NA -72.3%

Jan 0608:15

ADP EmploymentReportDec -125K -75K -169K

Jan 0610:00ISM Services Dec 52.0 50.5 48.7

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Jan 0610:30Crude Inventories 12/31 NA NA -1.54M

Jan 0708:30Initial Claims 01/02 455K 445K 432K

Jan 0708:30Continuing Claims 12/26 4900K 5040K 4981K

Jan 0808:30Average Workweek Dec 33.2 33.2 33.2

Jan 0808:30Hourly Earnings Dec 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Jan 0808:30Nonfarm Payrolls Dec -25K 0K -11K

Jan 0808:30UnemploymentRateDec 10.2% 10.1% 10.0%

Jan 0810:00WholesaleInventoriesNov -0.2% -0.3% 0.3%

Jan 0815:00Consumer Credit Nov -$7.0B -$5.0B -$3.5B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

Mar ES: pos with support at 1125.00

NQ: neg with res at 1889.00

Mini Dow: pos with support at 1047.00

Gold: neg with res at 1139

Mar Silver: pos with support at 17.90

Mar Copper: pos with support at 334.70 (fell yesterday on

China’s statement of restricting credit)

Mar Yen: neg with res at 109.00

Mar Swiss: pos with support at 95.78

Mar EC: neg with res at 144.15

Mar Canadian: pos with support at 95.98

Mar BP: neg with res at 161.20

Mar Aussie: pos with support at 90.34

Feb Crude: pos with support at 81.50

Mini Nat Gas: neg with res at 6.02

Mar Soybeans: potential reversal day

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.485

Mar Ten Year: neg with res at 116.02

Mar 30 Year: neg with res at 115.23

June Eurodollar: pos with support at 99.42

**************

International Markets

Mar Bund: neg with res at 121.58

Mar Dax: pos with support at 5981

**********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

 

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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