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Balance of Trade deficit widens due to higher oil prices and China's increase in bank reserves

Top Day Rec

01.12.10

Balance of Trade deficit widens due to higher oil prices

and China asks banks to increase reserves against

lending to combat risk. Yesterday took its early cue from

Chinese imports increasing by 5% but we also

mentioned that China was looking to restrict credit

going forward and this should be kept in mind. Copper

is reflecting this in early trade this morning. Bonds are

reflecting a less than robust US economic outlook and

stocks are pricing in this view as well. Very quietly

yesterday, under the proverbial radar, bonds had an

internal trend change.

This Week's Calendar

Date ET Release For ActualBriefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Jan 1208:30Trade Balance Nov -$31.0B -$34.5B -$32.9B

Jan 1310:30Crude Inventories 1/08 NA NA 1.33M

Jan 1314:00Treasury Budget Dec -$97.0B -$92.0B -$120.3B

Jan 1314:00Fed's Beige Book

Jan 1408:30Initial Claims 01/09 450K 433K 434K

Jan 1408:30ContinuingClaims1/2 4725K 4800K 4802K

Jan 1408:30Retail Sales Dec 0.6% 0.5% 1.3%

Jan 1408:30Retail Sales exautoDec 0.1% 0.3% 1.2%

Jan 1408:30Export Prices exag.Dec NA NA 0.7%

Jan 1408:30Import Prices exoilDec NA NA 0.4%

Jan 1410:00BusinessInventoriesNov 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%

Jan 1508:30Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Jan 1508:30CPI Dec 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%

Date ET Release For ActualBriefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Jan 1508:30EmpireManufacturingSurveyJan 5.00 11.25 2.55

Jan 1509:15CapacityUtilizationDec 72.3% 71.8% 71.3%

Jan 1509:15IndustrialProductionDec 1.0% 0.6% 0.8%

Jan 1509:55Mich Sentiment Jan 74.6 73.8 72.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

Mar ES: pos with support at 1132.50

NQ: neg with res at 1885.00

Mini Dow: pos with support at 1050.0

Gold: potential reversal day

Mar Silver: pos with support at 18.275

Mar Copper: pos with support at 336.00

Mar Yen: possible reversal day

Mar Swiss: pos with support at 97.87

Mar EC: possible reversal day

Mar Canadian: pos with support at 96.10

Mar BP: possible reversal day

Mar Aussie: pos but below daily support of 91.94

Feb Crude: pos with support at 80.82

Mini Nat Gas: neg with res at 5.61

Mar Soybeans: neg with res at 10.26

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.59

Mar Ten Year: potential reversal day

Mar 30 Year: pos with support at 115.07

June Eurodollar: pos with support at 99.50

**************

International Markets

Mar Bund: pos with support at 121.56

Mar Dax: potential reversal day

**********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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