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Fed raises the discount rate for the first time in three years by 50 baiss points

Top Day Rec 2.19.10

A shot across the bow. Thatís how one watcher worded

it immediately after the Fed came in a raised the

discount rate for the first time in three years. The Fed

talked of this eventuality in the most recently released

FOMC minutes but the timing caught many off guard.

Nevertheless, the Fed is going to drain liquidity from the

system and this was the first emblematic step. Itís a

dollar positive. This is a transition period. One of the

better features of February is that it only has 28 days.

February 15 - February 19

Date ET Release For ActualBriefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Feb 16 08:30EmpireManufacturing

Feb 16.40 18.00 15.92

Feb 16 09:00Net Long-TermTIC FlowsDec $35.4B $50.0B $126.8B

Feb 17 08:30Housing Starts Jan 535K 580K 557K

Feb 17 08:30Building Permits Jan 590K 615K 653K

Feb 17 08:30Export Prices exag.Jan NA NA 0.5%

Feb 17 08:30Import Prices exoilJan NA NA 0.4%

Feb 17 09:15IndustrialProductionJan 0.4% 0.8% 0.6%

Feb 17 09:15CapacityUtilizationJan 72.3% 72.6% 72.0%

Feb 17 14:00Treasury Budget Jan -$46.0B -$46.0B -$91.9B

Feb 17 14:00Minutes of FOMCMeeting1/28

Feb 18 08:30ContinuingClaims02/6 4520K 4500K 4538K

Feb 18 08:30Initial Claims 02/13 460K 430K 440K

Feb 18 08:30PPI Jan 0.9% 0.8% 0.2%

Feb 18 08:30Core PPI Jan 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Feb 18 10:00Leading Indicators Jan 0.6% 0.5% 1.1%

Feb 18 10:00Philadelphia Fed Feb 16.2 17.0 15.2

Feb 18 11:00Crude Inventories 2/12 NA NA 2.42M

Date ET Release For ActualBriefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Feb 19 08:30CPI Jan 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Feb 19 08:30Core CPI Jan 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

Mar ES: pos with support at 1088

NQ: pos with support at 1796.00

Mar Mini Dow: pos with support at 1019

Apr Gold: pos with support at 1087

Mar Silver: neg with res at 16.32

Mar Copper: pos with support at 311

Mar Yen: neg with res at 110.30

Mar Swiss: neg with res at 93.20

Mar EC: neg with res at 135.89

Mar Canadian: pos with support at 94.89

Mar BP: neg with res at 155.99

Mar Aussie: neg with res at 89.36

Mar Crude: pos with support at 77.15

Mar Mini Nat Gas: neg with res at 5.24

Mar Soybeans: potential reversal day

Mar Wheat: neg with res at 4.89

Mar Ten Year: neg with res at 117.27

Mar 30 Year: neg with res at 117.00

June Eurodollar: pos with support at 99.62

**************

International Markets

Mar Bund: neg with res at 123.09

Mar Dax: pos with support at 5638

**********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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