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Drop in German business confidence drags oil and EC

Top Day Rec 2.23.10

German business confidence drops unexpectedly and

this takes the EC lower along with oil. Oil product

options expire today. The yield curve remains incredibly

flat; the world is flat, at least to the yield curve. Case

Schiller with home price data at 9.

This Week's Calendar

Click on a "Release" for Insight

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Feb 23 09:00Case-Shiller 20-cityIndexDec -4.5% -3.0% -5.3%

Feb 23 10:00ConsumerConfidenceFeb 56.5 55.0 55.9

Feb 24 10:00New Home Sales Jan 325K 355K 342K

Feb 24 10:30Crude Inventories 2/19 NA NA 3.08M

Feb 25 08:30Initial Claims 02/20 425K 458K 473K

Feb 25 08:30Continuing Claims 02/13 4570K 4570K 4563K

Feb 25 08:30Durable Orders Jan NA 1.5% 0.3%

Feb 25 10:00FHFA HousingPrice IndexDec 0.4% NA 0.7%

Feb 26 08:30GDP - SecondEstimateQ4 5.3% 5.7% 5.7%

Feb 26 08:30GDP Deflator -Second EstimateQ4 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

Feb 26 09:45Chicago PMI Feb 57.5 59.0 61.5

Feb 26 09:55U MichiganConsumerSentiment - FinalFeb 74.6 74.0 73.7

Feb 26 10:00Existing HomeSalesJan 5.20M 5.50M 5.45M

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

March Emini S&P: positive with support at 1099

March Emini Nasdaq: positive with support at 1810.00

March Mini Dow: positive with support at 1031

April Gold: positive with support at 1105

March Silver: negative with resistance at 16.48

Mar Copper: positive with support at 324

Mar Yen: potential reversal day

Mar Swiss: positive with support at 92.50

Mar Euro Currency: negative with resistance at 136.93

Mar Canadian: positive with support at 95.40

Mar British Pound: negative with res at 155.68

Mar Aussie: positive with support at 89.35

April Crude: positive with support at 79.15

Mar Mini Natural Gas: negative with resistance at 4.96

Mar Soybeans: positive with support at 9.50

Mar Wheat: potential reversal day

Mar Ten Year Notes: negative with res at 117.13

Mar 30 Year Bonds: negative with res at 117.02

June Eurodollar: potential reversal day

**************

International Markets

March Bund: negative with res at

March Dax: positive with support at

**********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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