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Crude oil futures, best performing commodity on Wednesday, up 1.5%

Weekly Futures Report

02.24.10 Filed Wednesday 6:20 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Daily Bars

Last Last Week (2.17)

Apr Crude 80.34 77.68

Apr Heat 206.21 201.22

Apr XRB (Blended) 221.09 212.50

Crude oil was the third best performing commodity on Wednesday, up

1.5%. The American Petroleum Institute report showed that US

stockpiles declined for the latest reporting week. Crude inventories fell

by 3.14 million barrels. This drop in crude supplies was a surprise to

many market observers who had been anticipating an increase. Another

positive for the market and came from the testimony of the Federal

Reserve Chairman in his semiannual testimony. He maintained that

interest rates will probably remain low for the foreseeable future to help

stimulate an economic recovery. Money flow in crude oil remains

positive. Traders expected that the Department of Energy would show

an increase of 1.9 million barrels. A negative for the oil market was a

drop in business confidence in Germany and a drop in consumer

confidence in the United States. A positive for the heating oil market

was news of a "snow hurricane" heading for the Northeast US. Still,

gasoline outperformed heating oil on a spread basis. The market is at

the top end of its perceived trading range so new information will have

to arrive to push it out of this current range.

Support Resistance

Apr Crude 77.00 81.30

Apr Heat 201.80 211.30

Apr Gas 212.50 224.90

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

Apr Gold 1097.20 1120.10

Mar Silver 15.94 15.93

April Platinum 1507.30 1530.00

Gold put in a lackluster trading session on Wednesday closing down

.06%. The negative for gold was news that China may not buy Gold

from the International Monetary Fund. The reason given was that

China did not want to create undue volatility in the gold market if it

became known that they were a major buyer. The IMF suggested

recently that they would sell 13% of its gold reserves. It's believed that

China does not view the current market price as being attractive. It's

further speculated that they would step in as a buyer if gold traded

below $1000 an ounce. With todayís lower close, gold has reversed its

intermediate trend to negative. Money flow in silver is also negative.

Platinum also reversed its intermediate trend to negative today as well.

March is seldom kind to gold. Beware the Ides.

Support Resistance

April Gold 1080.00 1141.00

Mar Silver 15.17 16.70

April Plat 1496.00 1565.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

May Coffee 132.85 134.65

May Sugar 24.40 25.57

Brazil has stated that its coffee crop may reach a record 55 million bags

this year. Brazil is the world's biggest producer. An examination of

beans in the field has been very positive, much to the surprise of many.

Another negative for the market has been the stronger dollar which

should continue going forward as the EC confronts its problems with

Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain.

Money flow in sugar remains negative. That being said, sugar did put in

the best performance of all commodities on Wednesday with a gain of

3%. The rally was the most in almost 2 weeks. Behind the rally was the

idea that more buyers will come into the market as Pakistan has

recently. It is still believed that sugar prices remain high on the back of

lower world production. Market observers believe the supply demand

ratio will remain tight.

Support Resistance

May Coffee 130.50 133.00

May Sugar 23.20 25.00

*****************************************

Last Last Week

May Soybeans 9.63 9.61

May Corn 3.862 3.716

May Wheat 5.136 5.092

Money flow in soybeans remains positive. There is concern that above

average rain and snowfall may result in flooding key planting areas this

spring and delay planting. Market observers say that most of the corn

belt remains excessively wet. This past year has seen double the normal

amount of rain and snowfall. Planting intentions for soybeans are for

77 million acres down slightly from last year.

Money flow in corn remains positive. There is the idea that producers

will plant 89 million acres of corn, up 2.9% from last year.

Money flow in wheat remains negative. Market observers say that itís

difficult to turn bullish on wheat at this point in time. The chart below

does nothing to discourage this feeling as stochastics have run to 71 and

the price has remained inert.

Support Resistance

May Soybeans 9.50 9.90

May Corn 3.74 4.00

May Wheat 5.00 5.20

Chuck Kespert

NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

 

 

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