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The British and the US edge closer to a debt rating downgrade

Top Day Recommendation 3.15.10

After last week’s paucity of eco data points, this week

is frenetic. This frenzy kicks off with today’s release of

the Empire State Manufacturing Index, then long term

tic flows, cap utilization and indy production. Of

course Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee

meeting decision on rates will be the pivotal moment of

the stanza while PPI, CPI, LEI and Philly Fed will

provide the grace notes.

Overnight, the British and the US edge closer to a debt

rating downgrade and there is division amongst EC

about a Greek bailout.

Week of March 15 - March 19

Date ET Release For ActualBriefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Mar1508:30EmpireManufacturingSurveyMar 22.0 21.45 24.91

Mar1509:00Net Long-Term TICFlowsDec $42.50B $50.0B $63.3B

Mar1509:15CapacityUtilizationFeb 72.8% 72.6% 72.6%

Mar1509:15IndustrialProductionFeb 0.2% 0.0% 0.9%

Mar1608:30BuildingPermitsFeb 610K 602K 622K

Mar1608:30Housing Starts Feb 550K 570K 591K

Mar1608:30Import Pricesex-oilFeb NA NA 0.4%

Mar1608:30Export Pricesex-ag.Feb NA NA 0.7%

Mar1614:15FOMC RateDecision

Mar160.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Mar1708:30Core PPI Feb 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%

Mar1708:30PPI Feb -0.3% -0.2% 1.4%

Mar1710:30CrudeInventories03/13 NA NA 1.43M

Mar1808:30Core CPI Feb 0.0% 0.1% -0.1%

Mar1808:30CPI Feb 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

Mar1808:30Initial Claims 03/13 460K 450K 462K

Mar1808:30ContinuingClaims03/6 4500K 4500K 4558K

Mar1808:30CurrentAccountBalanceQ4 -$117.5B -$120.0B-$108.0B

Mar1810:00LeadingIndicatorsFeb 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%

Mar1810:00PhiladelphiaFedMar 17.8 18.0 17.6

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

June Emini S&P: positive with support at 1136.00

June Emini Nasdaq: positive with support at 1907.00

June Mini Dow: positive but below daily support of 1054

April Gold: negative with resistance at 1115.00

May Silver: positive with support at 16.88

May Copper: negative with resistance at 338.00 and 340.00

June Yen: positive with support at 109.92

June Swiss: positive with support at 9379

June Euro Currency: daily resistance at 138.12

June Canadian: positive with support at 97.73

June British Pound: potential reversal day

June Aussie: positive with support at 90.16

April Crude: positive with support at 79.10

April Mini Natural Gas: negative with resistance at 4.45

May Soybeans: potential reversal day

May Wheat: really negative with resistance at 4.88

May Sugar: negative with resistance at 2047

June Ten Year Notes: positive with support at 116.11

June 30 Year Bonds: positive with support at 116.04

Sept Eurodollar: negative with resistance at 99.42

**************

International Markets

June Bund: negative with resistance at 122.16

June Dax: positive with support at 5914

**********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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