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ECB reports that Greece's budget deficit is worse than previously thought, EC further lowered on this report

Top Day Recommendations

April 22

Overnight, the ECB states that Greeceís budget deficit is actually worse

than previously thought and this has pressured the EC lower. The

budget deficit is 13.6 percent of GDP, not their previous prediction of

12.9%. Recently sold Greek debt was obviously mispriced. 10 year

Greek bond yields are now twice that of the German rate. A drowning

man threatens everything he touches. Nokia and Qualcom miss and this

takes a piece out of the NASDAQ last night. The President is in NYC

today to talk at Cooper Union about financial reform. Greater clarity in

derivatives is necessary but the GS CDO wasnít the cause of the housing

collapse. If a certain Midwestern based value investor went to GS and

said that he believed that the housing market would soar and that he

would like GC to create a derivative of bundled mortgages that he

would help select and they created such a vehicle and then they went to

various hedge fund managers to take the other side of the transaction

and if indeed the housing market soared and the hedge manager lost a

billion dollars because of it, what would they say? Bad luck? Why

didnít you reveal that the Midwestern value guy was on the other side of

my trade?

PPI up .07% with the core at .01% with jobless claims lower and in line.

This Week's Calendar

Click on a "Release" for Insight

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Apr 19 10:00Leading Indicators Mar 1.0% 1.0% 0.1%

Apr 21 10:30Crude Inventories 04/17 NA NA -2.20M

Apr 22 08:30Initial Claims 04/17 440K 455K 484K

Apr 22 08:30Continuing Claims 04/10 4600K 4600K 4639K

Apr 22 08:30PPI Mar 0.7% 0.5% -0.6%

Apr 22 08:30Core PPI Mar 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Apr 22 10:00Existing HomeSalesMar 5.30M 5.30M 5.02M

Apr 22 10:00FHFA Home Price Feb -0.2% -0.2% -0.6%

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFromIndex

Apr 23 08:30Durable Orders Mar 0.7% 0.2% 0.9%

Apr 23 08:30Durable Orders exautoMar 0.2% 0.6% 1.4%

Apr 23 10:00New Home Sales Mar 340K 325K 308K

(Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

June Emini S&P: positive with support at 1187.50

June Emini Nasdaq: positive with support at 2016.50

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 10976

June Gold: positive with support at 1133.20

May Silver: positive with support at 17.55

May Copper: negative with resistance at 355.00

June Yen: positive with support at 10717

June Swiss: negative with resistance at 9384

June Euro Currency: negative with resistance at 135.00

June Canadian: negative with resistance at 100.48

June British Pound: positive with support at 152.77

June Aussie: positive with support at 91.56

June Crude: negative with resistance at 84.50

May Mini Natural Gas: negative with resistance at 409

July Wheat: potential reversal day

July Beans: positive with support at 9.94

July Corn: positive with support at 3.64

June Ten Year Notes: positive with support at 116.25

June 30 Year Bonds: positive with support 116.30

Sept Eurodollar: negative with resistance at 99.51

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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