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Broad market rally after the Fed left rates unchanged

Top Day Recommendations

April 29

Just initial claims today. The Fed left rates unchanged and this provided

a relief rally especially in commodities. Overnight, European economic

confidence comes in better than expected and currencies are better

against the dollar. Earnings keep coming in mostly better than expected.

The oil well leak in the Gulf is 5 times worse than previously thought

and oil is higher on this. As for Greece, the EU wants Greece and the

other countries under pressure (Portugal, Italy and Spain) to get their

deficits from 14% of GDP to 3% of GDP. This is basically impossible.

The social dislocations and economic pain from the draconian measures

that would have to be taken would do more harm than good. Default

and reorganization?

Week of April 26 - April 30

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior

RevisedFrom

Apr 27 09:00Case-Shiller 20-cityIndex (y/y)Feb 0.7% 1.1% -0.7%

Apr 27 10:00ConsumerConfidenceApr 54.0 53.7 52.5

Apr 28 10:30Crude Inventories 04/24 NA NA 1.89M

Apr 28 14:15FOMC RateDecision4/28 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Apr 29 08:30Continuing Claims 04/17 4625K 4625K 4646K

Apr 29 08:30Initial Claims 04/24 435K 440K 456K

Apr 30 08:30GDP-Adv. Q1 1.8% 3.2% 5.6%

Apr 30 08:30Chain Deflator-Adv.Q1 0.9% 0.9% 0.5%

Apr 30 08:30Employment CostIndexQ1 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Apr 30 09:45Chicago PMI Apr 59.5 59.8 58.8

Apr 30 09:55Mich Sentiment Apr 72.0 71.5 69.5

(Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

June Emini S&P: positive with support at 1171.00

June Emini Nasdaq: negative with resistance at 2023.50

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 10877

June Gold: positive with support at 1155.00

July Silver: negative with resistance at 18.33

May Copper: negative with resistance at 344.00

June Yen: negative with resistance at 107.09

June Swiss: negative with resistance at 92.99

June Euro Currency: negative with resistance at 132.65 and

133.42

June Canadian: negative with resistance at 100.06

June British Pound: possible reversal day

June Aussie: positive with support at 91.32

June Crude: negative with resistance at 84.70

June Mini Natural Gas: positive with support at 4.27

July Wheat: positive with support at 4.82

July Beans: positive with support at 9.87

July Corn: negative with resistance at 3.69

June Ten Year Notes: positive with support at 116.21

June 30 Year Bonds: negative with resistance at 118.07

Sept Eurodollar: negative with resistance at 99.44

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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