Navigation

OPEN ACCOUNT NOW ONLINE!
Home
Managed Futures
Online Futures Trading
Futures Trading Systems
Free $45 Investor Kit

Quotes and Charts

Single Stock Futures

Emini
S&P, Nasdaq, Dow

Free Futures Kits
Futures Education Center
Research
Rates
 
   

Weekly Futures Report

 Crude falls after China's estimated growth falls less then expected

6.30.10 Filed Wednesday 6:50 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Daily Bars

Last Last Week

August Crude 75.63 76.35

August Heat 201.43 207.23

August Gas (Blended) 207.94 206.95

Crude oil attempted to stage a modest rally on Wednesday after a

severe decline in prices occurred Tuesday. The trigger for the decline

was the estimation that growth in China was less than previously

forecast. As China is the linchpin for the world's economic engine, this

news took most markets considerably lower. Previously, China

announced it was going to allow its currency to float against major

world currencies, albeit within a range. The result of the un-pegging of

the currency would probably increase the cost of Chinese goods

imported to the United States and this would in turn hurt corporate

profit margins and result in less off-take of oil. With the subsequent

downgrading of Chinese economic activity some economists were

revisiting the possibility of a double dip recession in the United States, a

definite negative for the price of oil. On Tuesday, the S&P traded at an

eight month low.

As far as the Department of Energy report, they stated that gasoline

stocks rose by 537,000 barrels to 218 million barrels. The trade had

been looking for gasoline stocks to have actually declined by 400,000

barrels. An unfortunate price positive for the market has been the

development of hurricane Alex which has forced oil recovery workers in

the Gulf of Mexico to evacuate. So far, this early season storm has

affected about 25% of crude oil output and 9% of natural gas

production in this key area. Money flow in crude oil remains negative.

Money flow in Heating Oil is negative. Money flow in Gasoline is

negative as well.

Support Resistance

August Crude 73.50 79.60

August Heat 198.00 215.00

August Gas 199.50 216.00

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

August Gold 1245.90 1237.50

Sept Silver 18.708 18.505

Oct Platinum 1537.3 1574.70

Gold maintained its basic value over the past five sessions by trading in

a sideways pattern even as other markets underwent substantial

revaluations. Gold is currently being seen as a way to preserve wealth d

during a period of high market volatility and economic uncertainty.

Even with some evidence suggesting an economic contraction due to a

downturn in activity in the Chinese economy which could in turn lead to

reduced economic activity worldwide and even the possibility of a

double dip recession in the United States, gold has maintained its value

primarily as a hedge asset. Some have even suggested that the current

economic clear and present danger is deflation and not inflation. For

many, it's difficult to see gold appreciating in price in a deflationary

environment. There certainly arenít wage pressures and there certainly

isn't an economic bubble such as real estate currently at work. Indeed,

unemployment is currently viewed as being a persistent problem going

forward and the best that can be said about the housing industry is that

it may be attempting to stabilize. But as long as paper assets are viewed

with skepticism and uncertainty about the economic future persists,

gold will find buyers on any measured decline. Money flow in gold

remains positive. Money flow in silver remains negative. Money flow in

platinum remains negative as well.

Support Resistance

August Gold 1220.00 1257.00

Sept Silver 18.21 19.03

Oct Plat 1518.00 1592.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

July Coffee 164.20 160.50

July Sugar 16.06 15.71

Coffee staged a rally on Wednesday after declining significantly, the

most in seven weeks, on Tuesday. Previously, coffee had reached a 12

year high at $1.76 a pound, a price that most traders termed excessive

and not completely substantiated by underlying fundamentals. Traders

had been reiterating that supplies in Brazil, the world's largest

producer, were more than plentiful to meet demand. When economic

indicators on Tuesday suggested a slowdown in the Chinese economy

and the potential repercussions worldwide, coffee saw aggressive profittaking.

As other markets were being marked down, coffee speculators

were prompted to get out. Fundamentally, coffee production in Brazil is

expected to increase by 23% this year. Even still, prices have increased

by 20% this year.

Sugar surged higher on Wednesday, the most in one week, as traders

believe that adverse weather it will cut back yields in India and

Thailand. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer after

Brazil. Sugar was up 2.7% on the day. Spectacular growing conditions

and imbalanced supply/demand ratios had previously resulted in a

decline of 43% so far this year.

Support Resistance

July Coffee 155.00 167.00

July Sugar 15.25 16.25

*****************************************

Last Last Week

Sept Soybeans 9.12 9.30

Sept Corn 3.626 3.554

Sept Wheat 4.802 4.756

Soybeans turned in a dismal performance on Wednesday. A USDA

report stated that US reserves were actually smaller than initially

anticipated. On this news, prices were expected to increase anywhere

from $.05-$.10 a bushel and gap higher on the opening but by midday

soybeans were actually down three cents a bushel. The soybean harvest

as of June 1 came in at 571 million bushels, a decline of 4.2% from 596

million bushels from the previous year. This is the smallest inventory

since 2004. Still, because of weakness in ancillary markets, soybeans

have had a difficult time maintaining any sort of price advance.

Corn soared to a four week high, trapping many shorts in the market as

prices gapped higher. The price advance was the most in nine months

for a single trading day. A USDA report stated that farmers planted

fewer acres than expected. Also US beef production may be the smallest

since 2005. Farmers planted 87.8 million acres, far below former

government forecasts. The reason for the miscalculation was due to wet

and cold weather conditions which delayed planting. Money flow in

corn remains negative but nervous shorts will have to cover their

positions before prices can resume a downward slope.

Wheat saw a similar price performance on Wednesday in the wake of

the USDA crop report. Traders had been anticipating inventories of 940

million bushels as of June 1. This would've been 41% higher than the

previous year. But estimations were incorrect and wheat basis the

September contract traded as high as $4.92 before producer selling

emerged taking the price $.20 off its highs. Money flow in wheat

remains negative.

Support Resistance

Sept Soybeans 9.08 9.38

Sept Corn 3.25 3.75

Sept Wheat 4.50 5.00

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

Managed Futures | Online Futures Trading | Futures Trading Systems | Futures Kits
United Futures Trading | Emini | Futures Broker

United Futures Trading nor any of its content providers shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Want to contact a licensed broker? Give us a call at 800-840-5617