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Weekly Futures Report

Crude oil traded the lowest since June 8th and dropped in price by 7% 

7.07.10 Filed Wednesday 4:45 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Daily Bars

Last Last Week

August Crude 74.46 75.63

August Heat 198.40 201.43

August Gas (Blended) 203.10 206.04

Crude oil rallied on Wednesday ahead of the delayed release of the

Department of Energy report detailing weekly supply and demand fro

crude and its products. The report was delayed by a day due to the

observance of the July 4th holiday on Monday making it a government

holiday. Traders believe that the weekly report will show a draw down

in supplies. Another positive aspect to the market was news suggesting

that retail demand for gasoline increased by 4% on a monthly basis and

is expanding at its fastest level in four years. At the same time, before

the price advance, crude oil traded at its lowest level since June 8th and

has dropped in price by 7% for the year thus far. Going into the

government report, traders believe that crude stocks fell by 2.13 million

barrels over the past week. The oil market was also taking its cue from

the equity market which attempted to rebound after reaching its lowest

level of the year just before the July 4th holiday. Overall the market

seems to be range bound with moments of heightened volatility

characterizing trading. Money flow in crude oil remains negative.

Money flow in heating oil remains negative as well. Money flow also

continues to be negative in gasoline. With the oil spill in the Gulf of

Mexico continuing to flow, a sobering fact has come to light; there are

many more abandoned wells in the Gulf and no one really knows if they

are capped properly or if they are leaking or threatening to leak.

Support Resistance

August Crude 69.50 75.00

August Heat 185.00 200.00

August Gas 190.00 207.00

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

August Gold 1203.00 1245.90

Sept Silver 18.055 18.708

Oct Platinum 1528.00 1537.30

Early on in Wednesday’s trading session, gold fell to a six-week low on

continued profit-taking after last month's record high. Gold did manage

to rebound as the day progressed as the dollar weakened against major

foreign currencies, most notably the Australian dollar and oil rallied as

well. Another benefit was higher prices for US equities. Gold is down or

had been down 6.3% from its high made on June 21. Since that time,

traders have been prompted to lock in profits. As the stock market

managed to decline to new lows for the year just in front of the July 4

holiday, trading sentiment had been negative across the board for many

different asset classes. Another positive was news that the International

Industrial Bank, a Russian lender, defaulted on $252 million worth of

bonds that matured yesterday. Gold usually does well when there's a

crisis of confidence in paper assets. Gold had reached its yearly high

primarily due to buying from investors seeking to protect wealth by

moving away from paper assets. Demand for gold in China gained in

the first half of the year as government measures to cool down the real

estate market inspired hard asset buying. As far as China and central

bank buying is concerned, observers don't believe that China will

increase its gold holdings appreciably because of potential large price

swings and the lack of an interest rate component. Money flow in gold

remains positive. Money flow in silver remains negative. The short term

trend in platinum will turn positive on Wednesday with a close above

1516.40.

Support Resistance

August Gold 1175.00 1225.50

Sept Silver 17.42 18.25

Oct Plat 1471.00 1554.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

July Coffee 163.95 164.20

July Sugar 17.09 16.06

Coffee maintained its value even though the most current weather

models suggest that Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter,

will not see any frost conditions this month. Only one weather system is

seen as being potentially threatening but even that is not scheduled to

make it to the key producing areas. It's impossible to gauge frost

possibilities for August, however. Brazil is expected to harvest 47

million bags of coffee this year, up 19% from last year. The Brazilian

coffee harvest runs from April to September.

Sugar rose in value as it was speculated that India would hold supplies

back from the world market to better meet domestic demand. India’s

sugar production is forecast to exceed 25 million metric tons, up from a

previous estimate of 18.7 million metric tons. Brazilian production is up

31% from year ago levels.

Support Resistance

July Coffee 155.00 167.00

July Sugar 16.25 17.25

*****************************************

Last Last Week

Sept Soybeans 9.41 9.12

Sept Corn 3.782 3.626

Sept Wheat 5.304 4.802

Soybeans rallied smartly on Wednesday to mirror the gains in the oil

market, partially to reflect the belief that demand for bio-fuels would

improve if oil continued to move up the charts. Investor sentiment

improved as equities tracked higher after the July 4th holiday. Against

this, the market continues to expect large crop yields for both corn and

soybeans and this should limit further upside price development. The

USDA may increase its estimate of soybeans stocks to increase from 369

million bushels up from 360 million bushels. Money flow in soybeans is

positive.

Corn stocks may increase to 1.582 billion bushels, up from 1.573 billion

from last month. The USDA will release its global projections for

agricultural supply and demand on July 9th. A positive for the corn

market is the expectation that China may increase its corn imports by

10 times to 10 million metric tons by the year 2015. Money flow in corn

is positive.

Wheat also joined in the price advance on Wednesday as most

commodities improved in value for the majority of the session. By mid

session, wheat was changing hands at levels not seen since January.

Wheat production estimates from Russia and France have been lowered

due to dry weather conditions. Money flow in wheat is positive.

Support Resistance

Sept Soybeans 9.00 9.75

Sept Corn 3.59 3.84

Sept Wheat 4.85 5.50

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.0000

 

 

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