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Weekly Futures Report

Crude came off due to the belief that a wide spread recovery in oil demand in oil may be waning 

7.14.10 Filed Wednesday 7:30 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Daily Bars

Last Last Week

September Crude 77.28 74.64

September Heat 203.15 202.93

September Gas (Blended) 206.40 201.82

Crude oil came off in price, modestly, on Wednesday as the belief that a

wide spread recovery in oil demand may be occurring more slowly than

previously thought. Tepid retail sales numbers were a negative for the

market as well as less than robust consumer confidence. Also, a

downbeat assessment of the US economy by the Federal Reserve was an

oil market negative. Equities started the day with positive tone thanks to

Intel reporting that business is better than almost ever. But profit

taking set in and the numbers regarding weekly supply and demand

from the Department of Energy weren’t strong enough to encourage

follow through buying from yesterday’s nearly 3.0% surge. The

American Petroleum Institute stated on Tuesday after trading hours

that crude stockpiles increased by 1.74 million barrels to 353 million

barrels. On a more positive note, refineries were reported to have

probably operated at 89.8% of capacity. According to the Department

of Energy, crude stocks did see a draw of 5 million barrels against an

expected decline of 1.5 million barrels while Distillates saw an increase

of 3 million barrels against an expected increase of 1 million barrels.

The International Energy Agency stated yesterday that global oil

demand will increase but at a slower pace next year. With China

attempting to cool its economy, oil demand may contract to reflect this

attempt at curbing growth. Market technicians believe that crude

remains trapped in a very wide range defined by $80 above and $72

dollars below. Money flow in crude oil is positive. Money flow in

Heating Oil is positive. Money flow in Gasoline is mixed, indecisive as a

stand alone feature.

Support Resistance

September Crude 73.50 79.80

September Heat 197.00 213.00

September Gas 198.50 213.00

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

August Gold 1208.7 1203.00

Sept Silver 18.325 18.055

Oct Platinum 1529.8 1528.00

Gold saw modest price pressure on Wednesday after a nice run on

Tuesday which gained most of its energy from the oil market. Gold was

higher by 1.2% on Tuesday. Also, continued weakness of the dollar

against the EC was a gold market positive. Gold is higher by almost

11% for the year. With interest rates continuing near record lows, gold

remains a good vehicle for wealth preservation. Many find it difficult to

visualize an appreciable price correction for gold in the coming months

although to expect the unexpected usually works best with the gold

market. The record high for gold remains the 1266.00 level. In a related

market, some technicians see a major downside reversal for platinum in

the not too distant future. Thin summer time trading conditions persist

and this can lead to exacerbated moves. Money flow in gold is positive.

Money flow in silver could reverse with a positive performance on

Thursday. Money flow in platinum is negative.

Support Resistance

August Gold 1188.00 1231.00

Sept Silver 17.65 18.64

Oct Plat 1498.00 1557.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

July Coffee 162.60 163.95

July Sugar 16.97 17.09

Sugar prices declined on Wednesday after a recent run higher on the

idea that there would be more than an ample Brazilian crop to meet

demand. Brazil and India are the world’s two largest producers.

Brazil’s crop yield may climb by 14% next year. This would result in a

record yield of 41 million metric tons while India may produce 26

million metric tons. Sugar had returned to overbought levels after a

recent run of 3.4%.

There’s little in the way of fresh news in the coffee physical market to

report so technicals should continue to dictate trading.

Support Resistance

July Coffee 160.00 167.50

July Sugar 16.00 17.50

*****************************************

Last Last Week

Sept Soybeans 9.572 9.41

Sept Corn 3.842 3.782

Sept Wheat 5.59 5.304

Corn surged higher over the past 5 trading sessions as hotter than

seasonal weather may damage the current crop in the Midwest United

States. Some observers believe that as much as 20% of the current crop

could be damaged over the next six weeks. Temperatures are expected

to brush up against 100 degrees Fahrenheit next week. Buyers don’t

have adequate coverage and this is the prime feature to the higher

values.

Weather is also stressful for the soybean crop. Last week, some areas

received too much rain while other key areas were hurt by high

temperatures. Commodity funds are on the buy side. The current

weather conditions are as harsh as many can recently remember.

Money flow in corn is negative, however. Money flow in wheat is

positive. Money flow in soybeans is decidedly positive.

Support Resistance

Sept Soybeans 9.50 9.85

Sept Corn 3.68 3.86

Sept Wheat 5.22 5.64

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.0000

 

 

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