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The Chairman of the Fed sees the future as unusually uncertain

Top Day Recommendations

7.23.10

Cross currents continue. Earnings come in rosier than forecast and this enables

equities to surge. At the same time, the man with the most amount of information

(The Chairman of the Fed) sees the future as unusually uncertain. The market

exceeded the upside projection yesterday and never came back to earth while

crude did pop to 78.02 and more.

Today is trickier than it should be. No eco data but the release of the Euro bank

stress tests. Trading could be erratic and on both sides of neutral simply because

an event like this has never occurred. Volumes are light, itís summer, itís Friday

and the release will occur just as Europe is set to close so caveat emptor.

Crude momentum slows on any approach to 80.

Week of July 19 - July 23

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Jul 19 10:00 National Homebuilders

Association Index

July NA NA 17

Jul 20 08:30 Building Permits Jun 560K 575K 574K

Jul 20 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 570K 570K 593K

Jul 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/17 NA NA -5.06M

Jul 22 08:30 Initial Claims 07/17 440K 445K 429K

Jul 22 08:30 Continuing Claims 07/10 4600K 4600K 4681K

Jul 22 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.40M 5.04M 5.66M

Jul 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun -0.4% -0.4% NA

(Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamental.

Sept Emini S&P: negative with resistance at 1101

Sept Emini Nasdaq: negative with resistance at 1877

Sept Mini Dow: negative with resistance at 10375

Aug Gold: positive with support at 1184.00

Sept Silver: positive with support at 17.77

Sept Copper: positive with support at 307.70

Sept Yen: positive with support at 114.50

Sept Swiss: positive with support at 95.33

Sept Euro Currency: positive with support at 122.75

Sept Canadian: negative with resistance at 96.89

Sept British Pound: positive with support at 151.75

Sept Aussie negative with resistance at 89.58

Sept Crude: negative with resistance at 80.42

Sept Nat Gas: negative with resistance at 4.72

Sept Wheat: potential reversal day

Sept Beans: positive with support at 9.82

Sept Corn: positive with support at 3.71

Sept Ten Year Notes: positive with support at 122.19

Sept 30 Year Bonds: positive with support at 127.07

March Eurodollar: positive with support at 99.39

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

 

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