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Weekly Futures Report

Inventories of all oil categories higher by 5.3 million barrels to 1.13 billion barrels last week

8.18.10 Filed Wednesday 8:00 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Daily Bars

Last Last Week

October Crude 75.52 78.49

October Heat 204.70 210.70

October Gas (Blended) 190.53 195.48

Crude oil fell in price on Wednesday after the release of the US

Department of Energy report which stated that total stockpiles were at

their highest levels in 20 years. Prices fell for the sixth time in seven

sessions based primarily on the perception of decreased demand in the

face of an ever increasing supply. Inventories of all categories of oil were

higher by 5.3 million barrels to 1.1 3 billion barrels last week. This

includes both crude oil and its products. Distillate fuels are at their

highest levels since 1983. Not only are inventories high but they are

increasing at a time of year when inventories should be decreasing.

Even though oil fell today, it remains 9% higher from one year ago at

this time. The distillate fuel stocks were higher by 1.07 million barrels to

174.2 million barrels. Crude stocks fell by 818,000 barrels to 354 million

barrels. Traders had been looking for drop of 1 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories dropped by 39,000 barrels. On a positive note, fuel

demand rose by 0.4% to 19.6 million barrels a day. Over all, some

traders thought this was a mixed report which wasn’t decidedly bullish

or bearish. There is the fear that the US economic recovery is slowing

and this would result in a reduction in the off-take of oil. Money flow in

crude oil is negative. Money flow in heating oil is negative. Money flow

in gasoline is negative as well.

Support Resistance

October Crude 72.50 77.50

October Heat 199.50 209.00

October Gas 183.50 194.00

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

December Gold 1231.3 1200.40

Dec Silver 18.40 17.96

Oct Platinum 1537.4 1520.60

Gold prices rose on Wednesday as traders looked for a safe haven from

uncertain market conditions and activity in other investment sectors.

Summertime trading persists. This is peak vacation time and trading

can be choppy and prone to change direction arbitrarily. Traders are

uncertain about the short-term future for the dollar and also equities so

that they are just moving money into gold to park money until things

become clearer and a consensus announces itself. Gold on Wednesday

managed to trade both its technical support and its technical resistance

levels in the same session. Money flow in gold is positive as it is in silver.

Expect thin trading conditions to persist and market moves to be

exacerbated because of this.

Support Resistance

December Gold 1220.00 1246.0

Dec Silver 18.20 18.83

Oct Plat 1520.00 1560.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

September Coffee 175.15 170.60

October Sugar 19.60 18.26

A stronger dollar encouraged profit-taking in coffee on Wednesday.

Trade sources insist that supplies remain tight, however. Until the South

American October harvest comes in available premium supplies will

continue to remain tight. Coffee continues to be in a bull market.

Sugar continues to rally on the idea that supplies will remain tight due

to weather related concerns. Drought conditions worldwide have

reduced production by as much as 20% than earlier forecast. Every

time prices decline buyers step into the market. Prices are higher by

50% since last May. The drought in Russia is considered to be the worst

in the last 50 years. Sugar remains in a bull market.

Support Resistance

September Coffee 168.00 180.00

October Sugar 18.00 20.50

*****************************************

Last Last Week

November Soybeans 10.306 10.154

December Corn 4.332 4.11

December Wheat 6.886 7.25

Soybeans have continued to rally on the idea that the heat wave that has

gripped key growing areas in the central United States will reduce

yields in the current crop. Temperatures in key growing areas in the

Midwest have averaged 8° higher than normal since the beginning of

August.

Corn futures were higher by over five cents on Wednesday. Prices are

up almost 2% this week. Prices have rallied 6 out of the last seven

weeks. Corn is up 24% since the end of June.

Soybeans rallied by $.15 on Wednesday. The incredible heat wave has

just managed to make the harvest earlier than ever. Even with the heat

wave crops should come in at record levels. US farmers will harvest 13.3

billion bushels of corn up from 13.1 billion bushels last year. Soybeans

will come in at 3.4 billion bushels greater than last year's all-time high

of 3.3 billion bushels. Corn will have a deficit however in terms of

supply and demand figures. The market remains incredibly long in

terms of speculators so expect a shakeout on any change in weather

models. Money flow in corn is positive. Money flow in wheat is negative.

The money flow in soybeans is positive.

Support Resistance

Nov Soybeans 10.15 10.54

Dec Corn 4.18 4.37

Dec Wheat 6.65 7.18

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.0000

 

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