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Key day for several currencies to either reaffirm their trends or change them due to BOJ's intervention

Top Day Recommendations

9.15.10

Week of September 13 - September 17

Just when you think they wonít intervene, what happens? What has to happen?

Since the (or one of the) raison díÍtres of the market is to confuse nearly everyone

nearly all the time, Japan had to be expected to intervene to support its currency

when it was widely postulated in the wake of the recent election that it wouldnít.

The move was the first of its kind in something approaching 6 years but

apparently wasnít coordinated. It was unilateral which means that currency

speculators will eventually cauterize their unexpected wounds, regroup and push

back against the BOJ to test their resolve.

Today is a key day for several currencies to either reaffirm their trends or change

them. The BOJ intervention is just the catalyst to trigger this reappraisal.

Bonds sprinted higher yet again yesterday in the belief that the Fed Chairman

wants to return the interest rate environment back to the 1950ís and the way to

effect this is more quantitative easing by buying up to a trillion of US debt.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Sep 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Aug -$104.0B -$95.0B -$103.6B

Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Sep 14 10:00 Business Inventories Jul 0.8% 0.8% 0.3%

Sep 15 08:30 NY Fed - Empire

Manufacturing Survey

Sep 5.0 5.0 7.1

Sep 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug NA NA -0.2%

Sep 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Aug NA NA -0.3%

Sep 15 09:15 Industrial Production Aug 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%

Sep 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Aug 75.0 75.0 74.8%

Sep 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/11 NA NA -1.85M

Sep 16 08:30 Initial Claims 09/11 440K 460K 451K

Sep 16 08:30 Continuing Claims 09/4 4450K 4450K 4478K

Sep 16 08:30 PPI Aug 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Sep 16 08:30 Core PPI Aug 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%

Sep 16 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$125.0 -$125.0 -$109.0B

Sep 16 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun NA NA $44.4B

Sep 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep 0.0 0.0 -7.7

Sep 17 08:30 CPI Aug 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Sep 17 08:30 Core CPI Aug 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Sep 17 09:55 Mich Sentiment Sep 70.0 70.0

Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamentally biased.

Dec Emini S&P: positive with support at 1109.75

Dec Emini Nasdaq: positive with support at 1909.50

Dec Mini Dow: positive with support at 10422

Dec Gold: positive with support at 1252.90

Dec Silver: positive with support at 20.12

Dec Copper: positive with support at 343.00

Dec Yen: positive but way below daily support of 119.04 due to

intervention.

Dec Swiss: potential reversal day

Dec Euro Currency: positive with support at 128.83

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day

Dec British Pound: potential reversal day

Dec Aussie: positive with support at 91.61

Oct Crude: positive with support at 75.25

Oct Nat Gas: positive with support at 3.86

Dec Wheat: positive with support at 7.274

Nov Beans: potential reversal day

Dec Corn: positive with daily support of 4.850

Dec Ten Year Notes: potential reversal day

Dec 30 Year Bonds: potential reversal day

March Eurodollar: negative with resistance at 99.55

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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