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Core CPI shows disinflationalry pressures

Top Day Recommendations

9.17.10

Week of September 13 - September 17

Core CPI under 1% reflects disinflationary pressures. This would be in line with

the Swiss assessment of yesterday, I think. Their communiquť was dovish

towards inflationary pressures. At the very least, this was a bond friendly number.

Equities continue to rally.

The holiday should exacerbate trading today. Highs could be higher, lows lower. It

still counts, however.

Economics is the dismal science, or so it is said. A dismal stat released yesterday

was that 1 out of 7 Americans is attempting to get by under the poverty line and

itís a very low line at that; $10.830 pretax income for an individual, $22,050 for a

family of four.

The Yen intervention was unilateral and not particularly appreciated by the US and

EU if you can believe what you read. The problem seems to be is that all these

pressured economies seem to want to export their way out of recession. The next

question would be, export to whom?

At any rate, Iím ready for some football.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Sep 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Aug -$104.0B -$95.0B -$103.6B

Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Sep 14 10:00 Business Inventories Jul 0.8% 0.8% 0.3%

Sep 15 08:30 NY Fed - Empire

Manufacturing Survey

Sep 5.0 5.0 7.1

Sep 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug NA NA -0.2%

Sep 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Aug NA NA -0.3%

Sep 15 09:15 Industrial Production Aug 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%

Sep 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Aug 75.0 75.0 74.8%

Sep 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/11 NA NA -1.85M

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Sep 16 08:30 Initial Claims 09/11 440K 460K 451K

Sep 16 08:30 Continuing Claims 09/4 4450K 4450K 4478K

Sep 16 08:30 PPI Aug 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Sep 16 08:30 Core PPI Aug 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%

Sep 16 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$125.0 -$125.0 -$109.0B

Sep 16 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun NA NA $44.4B

Sep 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep 0.0 0.0 -7.7

Sep 17 08:30 CPI Aug 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Sep 17 08:30 Core CPI Aug 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Sep 17 09:55 Mich Sentiment Sep 70.0 70.0

Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamentally biased.

Dec Emini S&P: positive with support at 1126.00

Dec Emini Nasdaq: positive with support at 1922.50

Dec Mini Dow: positive with support at 10436

Dec Gold: positive with support at 1269

Dec Silver: positive with support at 20.52

Dec Copper: positive with support at

Dec Yen: positive with ostensible support at 115.46

(intervention monkey wrenched the parameters).

Dec Swiss: negative with resistance at 100.34

Dec Euro Currency: positive with support at 129.59

Dec Canadian: positive with support at 96.78

Dec British Pound: positive with support at 154.84

Dec Aussie: positive with support at 91.99

Nov Crude: negative with resistance at 76.70

Oct Nat Gas: potential reversal day

Dec Wheat: negative with resistance at 7.34

Nov Beans: positive with support at 10.31

Dec Corn: positive with daily support of 4.91

Dec Ten Year Notes: negative with resistance at 124.12

Dec 30 Year Bonds: negative with resistance at 130.28

March Eurodollar: positive with support at 99.52

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

 

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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