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Tomorrow's unemployment report will be the focus of the week

Top Day Rec

10.01.09

Is the world spinning fast enough? October already. Yesterday, the market couldn’t hold onto end of quarter window dressing and fell back in on itself by the closing bell. This was carried overnight even though IMF raises world eco forecasts. Of course tomorrow’s unemployment report will be the focus of the week even as today has at least 7 eco releases. Yesterday’s 6% rally in crude was out of proportion to the supply/demand ratio and the fact that crude stocks are 10% above the 5 year average.   

 

Sep 29

09:00

Case-Shiller Housing Price Index

Jul

 

-14.50%

-14.20%

-15.44%

 

Sep 29

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Sep

 

59.5

57.0

54.1

 

Sep 30

08:15

ADP Employment

Sep

 

-250K

-200K

-298K

 

Sep 30

08:30

GDP - Final

Q2

 

-1.2%

-1.2%

-1.0%

 

Sep 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Sep

 

53.5

52.0

50.0

 

Sep 30

10:30

Crude Inventories

09/25

 

NA

NA

2.85M

 

Oct 01

08:30

Personal Income

Aug

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

 

Oct 01

08:30

Personal Spending

Aug

 

1.2%

1.1%

0.2%

 

Oct 01

08:30

Initial Claims

09/26

 

540K

535K

530K

 

Oct 01

08:30

Continuing Claims

09/19

 

6100K

6178K

6138K

 

Oct 01

10:00

Construction Spending

Aug

 

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

Oct 01

10:00

ISM Index

Sep

 

55.7

54.0

52.9

 

Oct 01

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Aug

 

1.0%

1.0%

3.2%

 

Oct 01

14:00

Auto Sales

Sep

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Oct 01

14:00

Truck Sales

Sep

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Oct 02

08:30

Average Workweek

Sep

 

33.1

33.1

33.1

 

Oct 02

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Sep

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

 

Oct 02

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Sep

 

-225K

-180K

-216K

 

Oct 02

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Sep

 

9.9%

9.8%

9.7%

 

Oct 02

10:00

Factory Orders

Aug

 

-1.7%

0.5%

1.3%

 

   

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.17     

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 97.35    

Dec EC: pos with support at 145.30  

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 9262

Dec BP:  possible reversal day     

Dec ES: neg with res at 1062.50

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1735    

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 97402  

Dec Gold: pos with support at 997.70

Dec Silver: neg with res at 16.85    

Dec Copper: possible reversal day

Nov Crude: support at 67.65       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.36

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.65

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 118.02 

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.64   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5740

Dec NKD potential reversal day (down)

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

********************************************

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

  

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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