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Unemployment about 100k worse than estimated at 9.8%

Top Day Rec

10.02.09

Unemployment comes in at 9.8%  with a job loss of -263K, about 100K worse than estimated. Disappointing to say the least. Weak personal income growth. Also, there was an upward revision in job loss for the previous month. Household survey was also unfortunately worse than expected. Weíll still have 3.5% to 4.0% GDP growth but thatís due to government stimulus. Private sector is still missing.  

 

Sep 29

09:00

Case-Shiller Housing Price Index

Jul

 

-14.50%

-14.20%

-15.44%

 

Sep 29

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Sep

 

59.5

57.0

54.1

 

Sep 30

08:15

ADP Employment

Sep

 

-250K

-200K

-298K

 

Sep 30

08:30

GDP - Final

Q2

 

-1.2%

-1.2%

-1.0%

 

Sep 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Sep

 

53.5

52.0

50.0

 

Sep 30

10:30

Crude Inventories

09/25

 

NA

NA

2.85M

 

Oct 01

08:30

Personal Income

Aug

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

 

Oct 01

08:30

Personal Spending

Aug

 

1.2%

1.1%

0.2%

 

Oct 01

08:30

Initial Claims

09/26

 

540K

535K

530K

 

Oct 01

08:30

Continuing Claims

09/19

 

6100K

6178K

6138K

 

Oct 01

10:00

Construction Spending

Aug

 

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

Oct 01

10:00

ISM Index

Sep

 

55.7

54.0

52.9

 

Oct 01

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Aug

 

1.0%

1.0%

3.2%

 

Oct 01

14:00

Auto Sales

Sep

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Oct 01

14:00

Truck Sales

Sep

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Oct 02

08:30

Average Workweek

Sep

 

33.1

33.1

33.1

 

Oct 02

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Sep

 

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

 

Oct 02

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Sep

 

-225K

-180K

-216K

 

Oct 02

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Sep

 

9.9%

9.8%

9.7%

 

Oct 02

10:00

Factory Orders

Aug

 

-1.7%

0.5%

1.3%

 

   

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.37     

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 96.67    

Dec EC: pos with support at 144.77

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 91.15

Dec BP:  neg with res at 160.06     

Dec ES: neg with res at 1047.00

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1710    

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9624  

Dec Gold: pos with support at 991.70

Dec Silver: neg with res at 16.70    

Dec Copper: neg with res at 280

Nov Crude: support at 68.20       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.28

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.56

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 118.16 

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.70   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5682

Dec NKD neg with res at 9998  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

********************************************

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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