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The market is generally pleased with QE2 number, but job creation still remains foggy

Top Day Recommendations

11.04.10

$600 billion was the size of QE2. $500 billion was the expectation. The market was

generally pleased with this but how this will translate into job creation still

remains a foggy issue. Unemployment seems to be an intractable, structural

problem. Maybe if health care costs were lower?... It certainly lowers borrowing

costs but they were low enough to begin with. This injection is equivalent to 4% of

GDP. Some of this money will be invested overseas to garner higher rates of

return, certainly an unintended consequence. Does this make Fridayís

unemployment number an afterthought? Probably.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Nov 01 08:30 Personal Income Sep -0.3% 0.3% 0.5%

Nov 01 08:30 Personal Spending Sep 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

Nov 01 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Sep 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Nov 01 10:00 ISM Index Oct 54.6 53.6 54.4

Nov 01 10:00 Construction Spending Sep -0.8% -0.5% 0.4%

Nov 03 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 10/29 NA NA 3.2%

Nov 03 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts (y/y) Oct NA NA -44.1%

Nov 03 08:15 ADP Employment Change Oct 20K 25K -39K

Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 53.5 53.6 53.2

Nov 03 10:00 Factory Orders Sep 2.0% 0.6% -0.5%

Nov 03 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/30 NA NA 5.01M

Nov 03 14:00 Auto Sales Oct NA NA 3.75M

Nov 03 14:00 Truck Sales Oct NA NA 5.07M

Nov 03 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Nov 3 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Nov 04 08:30 Initial Claims 10/30 450K NA 434K

Nov 04 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/23 4400K NA 4356K

Nov 04 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 1.0% 0.6% -1.8%

Nov 04 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q3 0.7% 1.9% 1.1%

Nov 05 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 25K 45K -95K

Nov 05 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls - Private Oct 50K 60K 64K

Nov 05 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 9.7% 9.6% 9.6%

Nov 05 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Nov 05 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 34.2 34.2 34.2

Nov 05 10:00 Pending Home Sales Sep 2.0% 0.5% 4.3%

Nov 05 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep -$3.0B -3.8B -$3.3B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamentally biased. PRD denotes a Potential

Reversal of trend Day

Dec Emini S&P: positive with support at 1184.50

Dec Emini Nasdaq: positive with support at 2134

Dec Mini Dow: positive with support at 11093

Dec Gold: positive with support at 1335

Dec Silver: Positive with support at 24.47

Dec Copper: positive with support at 377

Dec Yen: negative with resistance at 123.90

Dec Swiss: Positive with support at 102.01

Dec Euro Positive with support at 139.87

Dec Canadian: Positive with support at 98.63

Dec British Pound: negative with resistance at 161.91

Dec Aussie: Positive with support at 98.57

Dec Crude: positive with support at 83.75

Nov Nat Gas: Negative with resistance at

Dec Wheat: Negative with resistance at 6.995

Jan Beans: Positive with support at 12.26

Dec Corn: Positive with support at 5.72

Dec Ten Year Notes: Positive with support at 126.04

Dec 30 Year Bonds: Positive with support at 129.04

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.


Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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