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Commodities are running higher due to weaker dollar

Top Day Recommendations

11.05.10

And ďThat was the week that was,Ē finally grinds to a halt with the release of the

Non Farm payrolls number. This may be anti climactic. The big news was the

information regarding QE2. The Fed believes that there isnít enough inflation in

the market. People point at Gold threatening $1400 and rightly ask if this isnít a

sign of inflation? Crude at $86? Isnít this inflationary? Well, yes and no. How can

the Fed say there isnít enough inflation in the economy? The answer is that

inflation has three components, commodities, wages and real estate.

Commodities are running thanks to a weaker dollar (gold is inert but as the

currency is devalued it continually takes more dollars to buy an ounce of gold).

Wages are stagnant thanks to an unemployment number above 9% and

outsourcing of US jobs. Finally, real estate is still reeling from the 2008 collapse.

So, two out of the three components are stable to deflationary. The alarming

problem with QE2 is that at the end of the day way too much will somehow,

miraculously find its way to the Honk Kong real estate market while job creation

will remain resistant to trend change.

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Nov 01 08:30 Personal Income Sep -0.3% 0.3% 0.5%

Nov 01 08:30 Personal Spending Sep 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

Nov 01 08:30 PCE Prices - Core Sep 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Nov 01 10:00 ISM Index Oct 54.6 53.6 54.4

Nov 01 10:00 Construction Spending Sep -0.8% -0.5% 0.4%

Nov 03 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 10/29 NA NA 3.2%

Nov 03 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts (y/y) Oct NA NA -44.1%

Nov 03 08:15 ADP Employment Change Oct 20K 25K -39K

Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 53.5 53.6 53.2

Nov 03 10:00 Factory Orders Sep 2.0% 0.6% -0.5%

Nov 03 10:30 Crude Inventories 10/30 NA NA 5.01M

Nov 03 14:00 Auto Sales Oct NA NA 3.75M

Nov 03 14:00 Truck Sales Oct NA NA 5.07M

Nov 03 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision Nov 3 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Nov 04 08:30 Initial Claims 10/30 450K NA 434K

Nov 04 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/23 4400K NA 4356K

Nov 04 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 1.0% 0.6% -1.8%

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Nov 04 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q3 0.7% 1.9% 1.1%

Nov 05 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 25K 45K -95K

Nov 05 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls - Private Oct 50K 60K 64K

Nov 05 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 9.7% 9.6% 9.6%

Nov 05 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Nov 05 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 34.2 34.2 34.2

Nov 05 10:00 Pending Home Sales Sep 2.0% 0.5% 4.3%

Nov 05 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep -$3.0B -3.8B -$3.3B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are technical in nature

only, not fundamentally biased. PRD denotes a Potential

Reversal of trend Day

Dec Emini S&P: positive with support at 1204.00

Dec Emini Nasdaq: positive with support at 2167

Dec Mini Dow: positive with support at 11235

Dec Gold: positive with support at 1343

Dec Silver: Positive with support at 23.90

Dec Copper: positive with support at 391.00

Yen: negative with resistance at 124.36

Dec Swiss: Positive with support at 103.20

Dec Euro Positive with support at 141.06

Dec Canadian: Positive with support at 99.00

Dec British Pound: PRD

Dec Aussie: Positive with support at 100.08

Dec Crude: positive with support at 85.40

Nov Nat Gas: Negative with resistance at

Dec Wheat: Negative with resistance at 7.35

Jan Beans: Positive with support at 12.49

Dec Corn: Positive with support at 5.816

Dec Ten Year Notes: Positive with support at 127.05

Dec 30 Year Bonds: Positive with support at 130.18

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%.

Repeat: use Stops. Donít think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

itís a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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