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US trade deficit comes in at 36.5 billion up 18% while import prices are higher due to higher oil prices

Top Day Rec

11.13

Happy Friday the 13th. Templar Knights should take the day off.

Overnight, the US trade deficit comes in at 36.5 billion up 18%. Import price are also higher due to higher oil prices.

U of Michigan consumer sentiment will set the tone for the shank of the day.  

Overnight, Euro area grows by 0.4% and this modest expansion puts the brakes on yesterday’s slide. Crude fell on very low production numbers and builds in supplies showing a lack of economic demand and this blunted gold’s advance.  

Nov 12

08:30

Initial Claims

11/07

 

525K

510K

512K

 

Nov 12

08:30

Continuing Claims

10/31

 

5700K

5700K

5749K

 

Nov 12

11:00

Crude Inventories

11/06

 

NA

NA

-3.94M

 

Nov 12

14:00

Treasury Budget

Oct

 

-$150.0B

-$150.0B

-$155.5B

 

Nov 13

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 13

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Oct

 

NA

NA

NA

 

Nov 13

08:30

Trade Balance

Sep

 

-$30.0B

-$31.9B

-$30.7B

 

Nov 13

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Nov

 

70.5

71.8

70.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

 

Dec ES: pos with support at 1079.50

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1763.50 

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 1012.10

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1098.50

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.05       

Dec Copper: neg with res at 298.00

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.64        

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 99.20       

Dec EC: neg with res at 149.75

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 94.25    

Dec BP:  neg with res at 166.80  

Dec Aussie: neg with res at 93.00    

Dec Crude: pos with support at 75.75       

Jan Soybeans: potential reversal day    

Mar Wheat: pos with support at 5.42    

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 118.15     

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.18    

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5628

Dec NKD pos with support at 97.00

**********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ˝%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************     

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

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