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Weekly Futures Report

Crude rallies on US jobs data 

11.24.10 Filed Wednesday 3:40 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Hourly Bars

Last Last Week 11.17

Jan Crude 84.24 81.04

Jan Heat 233.06 225.19

Jan Gas (Blended) 222.24 215.79

Crude oil rallied intraday to its best percentage gain in over five weeks

as US jobs data suggested creation giving the idea that the US economy

may be more robust and because of that more capable of increasing its

demand for oil and its products. For the latest reporting week, claims

for unemployment benefits fell by 34,000 to 407,000. Another sign or a

regenerating economy was an increase in consumer spending. In recent

trading action, oil had fallen over 6% from the highs made November

11th, its best level in two years. The drop was precipitated by China

seeking to dampen inflationary pressures by asking banks to increase

reserves. Consumer spending rose for a fifth consecutive month. As for

the supply/demand picture, crude oil stocks were higher by 1.03 million

barrels to 358 million barrels. The trade was looking for a decline of 2

million barrels. Another positive for the market was a pipeline break in

Nigeria forcing Royal Dutch Shell to declare a force majeure. This could

affect Nigerian loadings for the months of December and January.

Nevertheless, money flow for crude oil remains negative.

Support Resistance

Jan Crude 82.05 85.33

Jan Heat 225.00 235.00

Jan Gas 215.00 225.00

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

February Gold 1373.90 1339.00

March Silver 27.64 25.58

Jan Platinum 1661.5 1640.90

Gold was under light selling pressure on Wednesday as the dollar

regained strength against most of its counterparts and tensions in Korea

eased. On Tuesday, gold jumped more than 1.5% as it became known

that North Korea had provoked South Korea by firing artillery at a

South Korean island. Also, news that the Irish government would

dissolve in the wake of a bank bailout package. This lack of confidence

in paper money was a gold market positive. Workers strikes in Portugal

on a scale not seen in 22 years was another positive. Continuing worries

over Spain was another impetus to buy gold. Money flow in gold is

negative while it remains positive for silver.

Support Resistance

February Gold 1335.0 1390.0

March Silver 27.00 28.20

Jan Plat 1630.0 1690.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

March Coffee 2.0745 2.0285

March Sugar 28.06 26.47

Coffee was supported as news circulated that Columbia’s harvest may

be 5/3% below previous expectations. Columbia is the world’s second

largest produce of Arabica beans. The reason fro the shortfall has been

attributed to excess rainfall. The wet weather has also promoted the

spread of a fungus that kills coffee plants.

Sugar continued to appreciate. Supply concerns form India, the world’s

second largest producer and Australia, the world’s third largest

exporter supported higher prices.

Support Resistance

March Coffee 2.025 2.10

March Sugar 27.00 29.00

*****************************************

Last Last Week

January Soybeans 12.55 12.05

March Corn 5.536 5.392

March Wheat 6.852 6.714

Soybeans rose in price to a one week high on increased sales to China.

Sales to China are up 19% from year ago levels. Grain and oil seed

markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Last wee,

soybeans fell precipitously as China asked banks to stem inflationary

pressures. China will also raise margin rates for their commodity

exchanges to dampen speculative demand. Many observers believe these

actions by China are a covert admission that they have a food shortage

problem.

Wheat rallied on Wednesday as signs of a rebound in global economies

were thought to have improved demand for grains. US consumer

confidence came in above expectations while German business

confidence was also better. Also, world weather models suggest less than

ideal growing conditions in the world’s key growing areas.

Support Resistance

January Soybeans 12.00 13.25

March Corn 5.25 5.41

March Wheat 6.70 6.95

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

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