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Much lower than unemployment number seeding the idea that the recession might be over

Top Day Rec

12.07.09

The unemployment number surprisingly came in at 10% with a job loss of just 11K versus an expectation of negative 125K with a downward revision in the previous month. This was enough to seed the idea that the recession was over and that the Fed may now look towards the moment to raise rates. With that shift, gold came off sharply and the dollar saw strength. This carries over to the early trade on Monday. More rebalancing today due to margin considerations.       

  

Dec 07

15:00

Consumer Credit

Oct

 

-$11.6B

-$9.3B

-$14.8B

 

Dec 09

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Oct

 

-0.8%

-0.5%

-0.9%

 

Dec 09

10:30

Crude Inventories

12/04

 

NA

NA

2.09M

 

Dec 10

08:30

Initial Claims

12/05

 

450K

465K

457K

 

Dec 10

08:30

Continuing Claims

12/04

 

5475K

5435K

5465K

 

Dec 10

08:30

Trade Balance

Oct

 

-$35.0B

-$37.0B

-$36.5B

 

Dec 10

14:00

Treasury Budget

Nov

 

-$135.0B

-$134.1B

-$176.4B

 

Dec 11

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Nov

 

NA

NA

0.3%

 

Dec 11

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Nov

 

NA

NA

0.4%

 

Dec 11

08:30

Retail Sales

Nov

 

1.0%

0.7%

1.4%

 

Dec 11

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Nov

 

0.2%

0.4%

0.2%

 

Dec 11

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Dec

 

69.7

68.5

67.4

 

Dec 11

10:00

Business Inventories

Oct

 

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

 

Dec ES: pos with support at 1096

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1774 

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 1030  

Feb Gold: pos with support at 1140 and 1111

Mar Silver: potential reversal day      

Mar Copper: pos with support at 319.40

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.50          

Dec Swiss: pos with support at 97.50        

Dec EC: pos with support at 147.50

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 95.30      

Dec BP:  neg with res at 165.90    

Dec Aussie: pos with support at 90.50    

Jan Crude: neg with res at 77.20         

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 10.43    

Mar Wheat: neg with res at 5.70       

Mar Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.21

Mar 30 Year : neg with res at 119.31

Mar Eurodollar: neg with res at 99.61     

**************

International Markets

Mar Bund: pos with support at 122.44     

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5878

**********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use Stops.  Donít think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if itís a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

***********************      

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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