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Weekly Futures Report

 Crude marginally lower on Wednesday despite lower inventories report

12.08.10 Filed Wednesday 6:20 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Hourly Bars

Last Last Week 12.01

Jan Crude 88.51 86.75

Jan Heat 246.60 240.79

Jan Gas (Blended) 231.00 230.40

Crude oil was marginally lower on Wednesday in the wake of a report

from the Department of Energy which reflected unexpected increases

both in gasoline and distillate oil. Even though there was a drawdown in

crude stocks, crude oil immediately headed lower in sympathy with the

products fell in by over 1% of the report showed that gasoline stocks

increased by 3.8 million barrels to 214 million barrels for the latest

reporting week. Market watchers were looking for a decline in supplies

of 300,000 barrels. Distillate fuels which include heating oil, rose by 2.1

5 million barrels. Analysts said that the increase in products show that

there is no supply problems for the current time. Supplies in distillate

fuel were expected to have declined by 900,000 barrels. Crude

inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels to 355 million barrels. The trade

was looking for a decline of 1.4 million barrels. Another negative for the

market were signs that China, the world’s best customer for energy

products, may raise short-term interest rates. China is seeking to

combat inflationary pressures. OPEC will be meeting on December 11

in Ecuador. They are anticipated to leave current production levels

unchanged. Crude oil was in position to switch its short-term trend on

Wednesday but selling pressure as dried up and the market firmed into

the close. This leaves the bias still positive. Money flow in heating oil

remains positive as well.

Support Resistance

Jan Crude 86.55 91.80

Jan Heat 241.00 248.00

Jan Gas 225.00 235.00

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

February Gold 1382.40 1388.80

March Silver 28.40 28.50

Jan Platinum 1685.70 1686.10

Gold fell the most in three weeks as the market braced itself for the

possibility that China would Ray short-term rates to combat

inflationary pressures. Silver fell in price by more than 5% after

reaching a 30 year high. The dollar was stronger in short-term rates

back up, and gold market negative. Gold is sensitive to many variables

but one that may predominate from time to time is the cost of money.

Gold is a non-interest-rate bearing asset so when interest-rate bearing

assets show better yields money has a tendency to leave the metals. Up

to today gold had gained 29% for the year. Record levels and silver

coin sales and and investment in exchange traded funds backed by

metals has created a frothy condition but gold and silver could reverse

intermediate trend with a lower close on Thursday.

Support Resistance

February Gold 1375.00 1405.00

March Silver 27.00 29.50

Jan Plat 1660.00 1705.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

March Coffee 204.65 202.40

March Sugar 28.98 28.60

Coffee remained strong. Coffee output next year from Vietnam is the

biggest grower in the world for robusta beans to decline by as much as

20% from the previous harvests of 1.1 million metric tons. The

international coffee organization also one on to say that coffee

producing countries are expected to earn record earnings of $16.5

billion from exports in the calendar year 2010 because of rising prices.

As usual the case with coffee is that there is enough of it but they may

not be enough good coffee available to satisfy a fairly inelastic demand.

Sugar prices held up as well as the Brazilian sugar cane harvest may be

delayed by heavy rains next week. Any sort of pink in the pipeline is the

effect of firming prices. Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer

accounting for 54% of global exports of sweeteners.

Support Resistance

March Coffee 200.00 210.00

March Sugar 27.00 30.00

*****************************************

Last Last Week

January Soybeans 12.96 12.83

March Corn 5.744 5.662

March Wheat 7.84 7.40

Soybeans and lifted him price off of a one week low on signs that

demand is increasing for US based product. The US department of

agriculture said that shipments of soybeans were up 13% from a year

ago. Overseas demand is at record levels. As recently as November 12

soybeans touch levels not seen since August 2008. The dollar value of

the US soybean crop is second only to the US corn crop

Wheat futures lost some value for a second day as there was speculation

that the worst of the flooding to Australia's crop may be over and the

demand may slow down as prices reached a four-month high wheat has

been on a tear lately up 14% in two weeks as rains in Australia called

the wettest September November. On record. Crop damage is not

probably priced into the market and for the price rallies should and

demand. Floods in New South Wales for the worst and 20 years. New

South Wales is the largest producing state for a wheat in Australia.

. Support Resistance

January Soybeans 12.50 13.11

March Corn 5.45 5.83

March Wheat 7.60 8.10

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

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