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The Fed leaves short term rates unchanged on Tuesday and the economy showing some signs of growth

Top Day Recommendations

12.15.07

The Fed left short term rates unchanged on Tuesday and indicated that the

economy is showing some signs of growth. Not enough growth to

dissuade the Fed from continuing with QE2, however. Right now the

markets are behaving in a way not entirely displeasing to the Fed; bonds

are falling as money leaves to buy stocks which in turn improves the

“positive wealth effect” which should increase spending which in turn

should increase employment leading ultimately to a manageable and

desirable increase in inflation.

The EC was under early pressure as S&P puts Spain on credit review. Oil

was lower on the expectation that crude stocks rose last week even as

frigid temps grip the heavily populated Northeast.

Click on a "Release" for Insight

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Dec 14 08:30 PPI Nov 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

Dec 14 08:30 Core PPI Nov 0.1% 0.2% -0.6%

Dec 14 08:30 Retail Sales Nov 0.4% 0.5% 1.2%

Dec 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%

Dec 14 10:00 Business Inventories Oct 1.4% 1.1% 0.9%

Dec 14 15:15 FOMC Rate Decision Dec 14 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

Dec 15 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 12/10 NA NA -0.9%

Dec 15 08:30 CPI Nov 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Dec 15 08:30 Core CPI Nov 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Dec 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing

Survey

Dec 3.0 3.0 -11.14

Dec 15 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Oct NA NA $81.0B

Dec 15 09:15 Industrial Production Nov 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Dec 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov 75.0% 75.0% 74.8%

Dec 15 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Dec 16 17 16

Dec 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 12/11 NA NA -3.82M

Dec 16 08:30 Initial Claims 12/11 415K 425K 421K

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised

From

Dec 16 08:30 Continuing Claims 12/05 4000K 4078K 4086K

Dec 16 08:30 Housing Starts Nov 525K 545K 519K

Dec 16 08:30 Building Permits Nov 550K 560K 550K

Dec 16 08:30 Current Account Balance Q3 -$125.0B -$125.3B -$123.3B

Dec 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Dec 10.0 13.0 22.5

Dec 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Nov 1.0% 1.2% 0.5%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

good till close of business today). These are strictly technical in nature

only, not fundamentally based or biased.

Legend:

P is positive

N is Negative

PRD is Potential Trend Reversal Day

S2 is strong support

S1 is good support

DS is Daily Support

DR is Daily Resistance

R1 is Good resistance

R2 is Strong Resistance

S1, S2, R1, R2 change weekly

Trend S2 S1 DS DR R1 R2

Emini SP P 1209 1215 1227 1246 1241 1249

Emini NQ P 2163 2189 2198 2228 2229 2243

Yen P 116.96 118.14 119.12 120.5 120.98 122.74

EC PRD 130.11 131.17 133.29 134.64 134.12 135.27

10 year P 117.22 118.31 118.18 119.26 122.13 124.02

30 year N 118.01 119.26 118.18 121.11 124.13 127.07

Soybeans P 12.41 12.57 12.89 13.08 12.96 13.22

Corn PRD 5.41 5.57 5.85 5.91 5.87 5.95

Gold P 1336 1361 1385 1404 1421 1457

Silver P 26.41 27.55 28.05 30.07 30.29 31.8

Copper P 390 401 405 420 408 426

Crude PRD 85 86.3 87.7 88.9 90 97.2

Sugar P 27 28 27.5 30.5 30 30.7

**************

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these

numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ˝%.

Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops.

Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the

margin requirement and use that as a Stop or if

it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. But

whatever you do, stop thinking about any other

alternative and use Stops.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for

everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment.

Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past

performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE

MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH

ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE

FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE

ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY

ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE

GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT

INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO

HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF

FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR

EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR

TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM

IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS

WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER

FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL

OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC

TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL

OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL

TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

 

*The risk of loss exists in futures and commodity investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results or performance. Only risk capital should be used when making investments in the commodity markets.

 

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