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Weekly Futures Report

 GDP expanded by 2.6% for the third quarter against a previous estimate of 2.5%

12.22.10 Filed Wednesday 6:30 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Hourly Bars

Last Last Week 12.15

Feb Crude 90.62 89.12

Feb Heat 254.15 249.29

Feb Gas (Blended) 240.74 230.77

Crude oil rallied to its best levels in more than two years in the wake of

the Department of Energy report which showed US supplies fell more

than expected. Also, a report for the US Commerce Department stated

that the US economy grew more than previously expected in the third

quarter as measured by Gross Domestic Product. Crude stocks fell by

5.3 million barrels for the latest reporting week according to the DOE.

The trade had been looking for a decrease of only 3.4 million barrels.

The Commerce Department stated that the gross domestic product

expanded by 2.6% for the third quarter against a previous estimate of

2.5%. Crude traded as high as $90.40 a barrel, the highest level since

October 2008. Crude is up 14% for the year. Another positive for the

market was the grinding rally in equities which has now taken the S&P

to its highest closing level since September 8, 2008, just before the

collapse of Lehman Brothers. Trading is very thin however due to the

approaching holidays and the market will be closed on Friday. A

cautionary note should be sounded as the Vix, or implied volatility of

the stock market, is at its lowest level in two years. The current level of

complacency will not continue.

Support Resistance

Feb Crude 88.60 91.00

Feb Heat 246.50 256.00

Feb Gas 235.00 241.50

***********************

METALS

Last Last Week

February Gold 1385.6 1386.20

March Silver 29.25 29.25

Jan Platinum 1723.6 1713.90

Gold maintained a bid but closed little changed to values seen last week

at this exact same time. A positive for the gold market was the

conclusion of sales by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF sold

about 13% of its reserves. Gold is up 27% for the year. The gold sold by

the IMF was purchased by central banks. Money flow in silver has

actually turned over for the first time in a long time so expect profittaking

going into the end of the year. The recent backup in interest rates

has not been a positive for the metals markets.

Support Resistance

February Gold 1376.00 1399.00

March Silver 28.80 29.90

Jan Plat 1698.00 1735.00

*********************************

SOFTS

Last Last Week

March Coffee 230.20 217.50

March Sugar 33.13 31.11

Coffee production in Brazil is expected to drop 23% next year. This

virtually guarantees the lowest yield in four years and is a price positive.

Coffee growers should harvest about 37 million bags down 23% from

last year at this same time. Brazil produces about one third of the

world’s exports. Coffee is up about 72% this year.

Sugar was higher for the fourth straight session as India, the world’s

second largest producer, may delay exports. India does not want to see

inflationary pressures from a domestic rise in the price of sugar and

because of this they become net importers of sugar.

Support Resistance

March Coffee 213.50 238.50

March Sugar 27.74 35.34

*****************************************

Last Last Week

January Soybeans 13.286 12.964

March Corn 6.09 5.842

March Wheat 7.834 7.646

Labor unrest in Argentina has had the result of increasing prices for US

soybeans being exported to China. At this point in the cycle, China is

interested in rebuilding inventories and consequently both soybeans and

corn are positive in trend and in money flow. Trading is thin due to

holiday considerations and the markets will be closed on Friday. Money

flow for both corn and soybeans remains positive. Going into the New

Year the only headwind for the grains would be a stronger dollar as a

result of interest yield differentials favoring the green back and a

general backup in interest rates.

Support Resistance

January Soybeans 13.05 13.38

March Corn 5.95 6.15

March Wheat 7.56 7.91

Chuck Kespert from NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT

LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO

REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS

LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN

FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS

SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS

THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE

FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN

COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL

TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO

ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING

LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS

RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY

ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL

PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT

ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

 

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