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Higher T-Notes Rates Might Dampen the Overall Market Sentiments

Top Day Rec

05.08.09

Stress tests have come and gone, for now. 19 banks need to raise 75 billion. This probably wasn’t the biggest development of the day, however. It was the poor reception to yesterday’s auction. The yield on the 10 year note has gone from 2.5% to 3.3% even with the Fed buying its own paper. Remember, this is a period of record supply of debt. If rates continue higher, the negative effect on the economy will be a herbicide to the emerging green shoots of this fragile economy. Rates are even higher this morning while equities are higher on the idea that the jobs number will be better than feared and in line with the ADP forecast.

  

May 04

10:00

Construction Spending

Mar

 

NA

-1.4%

-0.9%

 

May 04

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Mar

 

NA

0.0%

2.1%

 

May 05

10:00

ISM Services

Apr

 

NA

42.0

40.8

 

May 06

08:15

ADP Employment Change

Apr

 

NA

-643K

-742K

 

May 06

10:30

Crude Inventories

05/01

 

NA

NA

+4053K

 

May 07

08:30

Initial Claims

05/02

 

NA

NA

NA

 

May 07

08:30

Productivity-Prel

Q1

 

NA

0.9%

-0.4%

 

May 07

08:30

Unit Labor Costs

Q1

 

NA

2.5%

5.7%

 

May 07

15:00

Consumer Credit

Mar

 

NA

-$3.3B

-$7.5B

 

May 08

08:30

Average Workweek

Apr

 

NA

33.2

33.2

 

May 08

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Apr

 

NA

0.2%

0.2%

 

May 08

08:30

Nonfarm Payrolls

Apr

 

NA

-620K

-663K

 

May 08

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Apr

 

NA

8.9%

8.5%

 

May 08

10:00

Wholesale Inventories

Mar

 

NA

-1.0%

-1.5%

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: neg with res at 101.65  

June Swiss: positive with support at 87.72

June EC: positive with support at 132.70   

June Canadian: positive with support at 85.25

June BP:  pos with support at 148.90.     

June ES: positive with support at 893.50

June NQ: positive with support at 1368.50

June Russell: positive with support at 483.00   

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 8280

Jun Gold: positive with support at 905    

July Silver: pos with support at 13.75

June crude: positive with support at 55.50         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 10.87

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.57

June Ten Year: positive with support at 119.09       

**************

International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 121.78        

June Dax: pos with support at 4740

NK: pos with support of 9196

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.   

  

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 ***********************     

 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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