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Gold Rallies on the back of the Dollar Weakness

Top Day Rec

05.12.09

The Trade Balance figure improves a bit, a modest sign of eco strength and this has trimmed some of the dollar weakness seen overnight. Gold rallied into resistance at 923 on the back of the weaker dollar and stronger crude. Most of this remains range trading however and a lot of cross currency consideration. British makes a new recent high into resistance of 153.25 and the market seems to be rejecting this area as seen below. Trend is still up but the value isnít there right now.   

 

May 12

08:30

Trade Balance

Mar

 

-$29.5B

-$29.2B

-$26.0B

 

May 12

14:00

Treasury Budget

Apr

 

NA

-$63.0B

$159.3B

 

May 13

08:30

Export Prices ex-ag.

Apr

 

NA

NA

0.1%

 

May 13

08:30

Import Prices ex-oil

Apr

 

NA

NA

-0.6%

 

May 13

08:30

Retail Sales

Apr

 

-0.2%

-0.1%

-1.2%

 

May 13

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Apr

 

0.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

 

May 13

10:00

Business Inventories

Mar

 

-1.0%

-1.1%

-1.3%

 

May 13

10:30

Crude Inventories

05/08

 

NA

NA

+605K

 

May 14

08:30

Core PPI

Apr

 

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

 

May 14

08:30

Initial Claims

05/09

 

580k

NA

601K

 

May 14

08:30

PPI

Apr

 

0.2%

0.1%

-1.2%

 

May 15

08:30

Core CPI

Apr

 

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

 

May 15

08:30

CPI

Apr

 

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

 

May 15

08:30

Empire Manufacturing

May

 

-14.0

-15.0

-14.65

 

May 15

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

 

 

NA

NA

$22.0B

 

May 15

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Apr

 

69.1%

68.9%

69.3%

 

May 15

09:15

Industrial Production

Apr

 

-0.4%

-0.6%

-1.5%

 

May 15

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Prel

May

 

65.2

65.0

65.1

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: potential reversal day   

June Swiss: positive with support at 89.65

June EC: positive with support at 134.90   

June Canadian: positive with support at 85.75

June BP:  pos with support at 149.70.     

June ES: positive with support at 895.00

June NQ: positive with support at 1375.50

June Russell: positive with support at 498.00   

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 8350

Jun Gold: positive with support at 904    

July Silver: pos with support at 13.75

July crude: positive with support at 58.25         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 10.97

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.84

June Ten Year: positive with support at 120.21       

**************

International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 121.15        

June Dax: pos with support at 4825

NK: pos with support at 9335  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use stops.  Donít think about using stops. Use stops.   

  

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

***********************      

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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