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Dollar Futures Weak on the Confluence of Several Factors

Top Day Rec

05.28

Prelim GDP contracts at -5.7% which is a bit better than the expected -6.1%. Consumption was lower however. The dollar is weaker on the confluence several ideas: the recession is over or lack of foreign buyers for US debt means lack of demand for US dollars.

Chicago area Purchasing managers at 9:45 and U of Michigan consumer confidence rounds out the shortened trading week.

 

May 26

09:00

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index

Mar

 

NA

-18.4%

-18.63%

 

May 26

10:00

Consumer Confidence

May

 

43.0

42.0

39.2

 

May 27

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Apr

 

4.65M

4.65M

4.57M

 

May 28

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

Apr

 

0.0%

0.5%

-0.8%

 

May 28

08:30

Durables, Ex-Transport

Apr

 

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.6%

 

May 28

08:30

Initial Claims

05/23

 

615K

NA

631K

 

May 28

10:00

New Home Sales

Apr

 

365K

363K

356K

 

May 28

11:00

Crude Inventories

5/22

 

NA

NA

-2.10M

 

May 29

08:30

GDP - Prelim.

Q1

 

-5.5%

-5.5%

-6.1%

 

May 29

08:30

GDP Deflator

Q1

 

2.9%

2.9%

2.9%

 

May 29

09:45

Chicago PMI

May

 

41.0

42.0

40.1

 

May 29

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

May

 

68.0

68.0

67.9

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: neg with res at 104.75    

June Swiss: positive with support at 91.54

June EC: pos with support at 138.55   

June Canadian: positive with support at 89.01

June BP:  pos with support at 158.80.     

June ES: neg with res at 913.75

June NQ: neg with res at 1432  

June Russell: neg with res at 497.50    

June Mini Dow: neg with res at 8462

Aug Gold: positive with support at 958.50 (get out of June gold/itís in delivery notice)    

July Silver: pos with support at 14.79

July crude: positive with support at 63.40.         

July Soybeans: potential reversal day

July Wheat: positive with support at 6.16 ĺ

June Ten Year: neg with res at 118.18       

**************

International Markets

June Bund: potential reversal day        

June Dax: pos with support at 4887

NK: pos with support at 9381  

***********  

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 Ĺ%. Repeat: use stops.  Donít think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

********************************************

    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 **********************     

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

 

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